Party of Regions of Ukraine supports Russian proposals to solve crisis

The Party of Regions of Ukraine, which had been led by former President Viktor Yanukovych, expressed its support on March 24 for the conditions set forth by the Russian government for resolving the crisis. They include giving the Russian language official status equal to Ukrainian, amending to Constitution to federalize the southeastern oblasts and ensuring Ukraine’s non-aligned military status, all of which have been explicitly supported by Oleksandr Yefremov, the Party of Regions parliamentary faction chair.

Zenon Zawada: The Party of Regions, which had been the most powerful force in Ukrainian politics for the last seven years, has been devastated by the EuroMaidan protest and the Russian annexation of Crimea. Its leaders are lost, having twice postponed their party congress. Part of the disorientation involves having to reconsider their pro-Russian politics to adopt a pro-federalism position, which Yefremov has already done. Its biggest financial sponsor, industrial tycoon Rinat Akhmetov, has yet to speak against federalism because for the first time in his career, he has no guarantees that his business interests will be protected in Kyiv.

We believe the business interests of southeastern Ukraine’s oligarchs will be better represented in the unitary Ukrainian state than under federalized regions that will be very vulnerable to Russian influence. The willingness of Party of Regions leaders to toy with the idea of federalization is a means of negotiating and extracting concessions from the new Ukrainian government, which is currently pro-Western and will remain so after the May presidential vote. We expect whatever government is elected in June to be eager to find common ground with a renewed Party of Regions (and its oligarch leaders) to ensure Ukraine’s unitary state.

At the same time, we can’t rule out the Russian government continuing to provoke conflicts and fuel revolts in the southeastern oblasts to justify a military intervention. Its goal remains undermining the May presidential vote and any attempt by Ukraine’s leaders to revive the unitary state and shelve the idea of federalization.