People’s Servant group forms to oppose Zelensky populism

A formal group is being formed, within the
pro-presidential People’s Servant parliamentary faction, consisting of MPs
opposed to President Zelensky’s recently adopted populist course, which
includes political concessions to Russia. A declaration by the Democratic
Platform group – which didn’t reveal its members and was published by the dt.ua
news site – said it has emerged owing to “systemic attempts to destabilize the
social-political situation in Ukraine from outside and within the country, as
well as attempts to discredit the political course towards reforms, cleansing the
country of corruption, liberating the economy, placating oligarchs,
strengthening defense, defending national interests and renewing territorial
integrity.”

The Democratic Platform group intends to “counteract
populism,” while at the same time harshly reacting to “attempts to divide the
faction,” the declaration said. It will “inviolately and consistently support
the president’s policies in several directions,” the declaration said,
particularly “striving for peace and returning the temporarily occupied
territories of Crimea and Donbas by means of proactive diplomacy, which is
based on clearly defined and uncompromising national interests and stable
national security, the foundation of which are the Armed Forces and strong
special services.”

Zenon Zawada: The
People’s Servant had been divided for months between different groups – with
varying loyalties – on a de facto basis, but they are now gradually formalizing
these divisions. We are confident that the emergence of this group won’t lead
to any dismissal of parliament, especially when Zelensky knows he won’t ever
gain the same impressive election results that he achieved last year. Instead,
Zelensky will do what Poroshenko did and cobble together different groups in
parliament, regardless of their formal allegiances, in order to approve
legislation on a situational basis.

The big picture here is that Russian President Putin
is succeeding in dividing Ukrainians between those who support capitulating and
returning to Russia’s orbit, and those who want to keep fighting for
independence. Putin is betting on more Ukrainians wanting to capitulate, rather
than keep fighting. Based on the polling data, our view is that the majority of
Ukrainians want an end to warfare, but don’t have a clear notion of how to
accomplish this and what to do with Donbas. They don’t want to capitulate, but
they don’t want to keep fighting.

In his current trajectory, President Zelensky will
continue to make concessions to Russia, and try to fulfill the Minsk Accords,
for as long as the public allows him. There aren’t enough MPs to stop him in
parliament, and the paramilitaries don’t have the support of the public to stop
him.

That is, we believe what’s needed to stop
Zelensky’s course is a third maidan, or a mass protest movement at least
100,000 people ready to take to the streets. The pro-Western forces don’t have
that ability now, even if there wasn’t a virus pandemic, because they lack
moral authority and trust with the public (which was largely undermined by
Poroshenko). Meanwhile, Zelensky will make gradual, small concessions to Russia
that won’t provoke any major protests, which is what happened last week with
the creation of the consultative council.