People’s Servant party enjoys modest lead ahead of Oct. 25 vote

The People’s Servant party, loyal to the president,
enjoys a modest lead over its rivals according to the last major poll ahead of
the Oct. 25 local elections. About 16.7% of those polled said they will cast
their ballot for the party, compared to 13.5% for the pro-Putin Opposition
Platform For Life party, 13.2% for the European Solidarity party, 8.6% for the
anti-IMF Fatherland party and 7.4% for the newly formed For the Future party.

The For the Future party is a project launched for
these elections by MP Ihor Palytsia, a longtime associate to billionaire Ihor
Kolomoisky. Its main theme has been local discontent with the central
government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic (particularly criticizing the
lockdown/quarantine measures), actively collecting signatures and calling for
the dismissal of Health Minister Maksym Stepanov.

About 28% of the public believes the local elections
will be marred by significant violations, according to the same poll. Another
48% believe there will be insignificant violations, and 16% will believe there
won’t be any falsifications. The poll was conducted by the Rating Sociological
Group among 5,000 respondents between Oct. 16 and 19.

Zenon Zawada: We find
these poll figures disturbing considering only one out of Ukraine’s five
leading parties has a consistent pro-Western position, while three have a firm
anti-IMF position. Meanwhile, the firmly pro-Western Voice party – which has a
faction in parliament – has paltry poll figures (1.4% support), despite a
relaunch in August promoting its new leader, the IT entrepreneur Kira Rudyk.

With the emergence of the For the Future party,
billionaire Kolomoisky has rejuvenated his influence on Ukrainian politics after
seeing his stake diminished in The People’s Servant party. He now has influence
on three of the five most influential parties, including Fatherland. This
development is negative for Ukraine’s Western integration prospects.

Another consistent theme is that the average Ukrainian
voter is more concerned about short-term solutions than long-term consequences.
The party that fully supports capitulating to Russia, the Opposition Platform,
has maintained its momentum from last year’s election. And support has swelled
for the For the Future party that criticizes quarantine measures, but doesn’t
offer better solutions of its own.