People’s Servant party remains most popular amid unclear trends

The People’s Servant party, loyal to President
Zelensky, remains the most popular political force, though polls released this
week indicated different trends and levels of support. The populist party is
supported by about 41.5% of decided voters, compared to about 36% in February,
according to the Razumkov Center poll released on May 4. Yet the Kyiv
International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) poll released the same day
indicated it is supported by 32.6% of decided voters, compared to 39.1% in a
poll released on Feb. 24. The Razumkov poll was conducted between Apr. 24 and
29 among 2,056 respondents, while the KIIS poll was conducted between Apr. 17
and 25 among 4,024 respondents.

Only three other political parties have enough public
support to qualify for parliament: the Putin-aligned Opposition Platform For
Life party (14.2% Razumkov, 15.8% KIIS), the pro-NATO European Solidarity party
(13.9% Razumkov, 15.2% KIIS), and the anti-IMF Fatherland party (7.0% Razumkov,
12.0% KIIS). The neoliberal Voice party would not be able to reach the 5%
threshold to requalify for parliament (3.1% Razumkov, 3.5% KIIS).

Zenon Zawada: The
People’s Servant remains popular for one reason alone, which is the celebrity
status of President Zelensky. Its parliamentary faction is more divided than
ever, having split into groups of pro- and anti-Russia, pro- and anti-IMF and
pro- and anti-corruption (to define positions in the most basic terms). After
the first few months in parliament, in which it approved some impressive
legislation, its momentum has stalled and reforms have been reduced to a
trickle. It’s incredible that it has maintained its strong support despite
approving the unpopular farmland market.

The large discrepancy in polling results for The
People’s Servant party could be due to various factors, including the differing
sample size, polling techniques and timing (though we don’t see any major
events that would have affected the polls in the week apart).

We attribute the fall of the Voice party – which was
chiefly supported by educated, urban pro-NATO voters – to (1) distressed
pro-NATO voters deciding to consolidate with the European Solidarity party, (2)
party founder Sviatoslav Vakarchuk being largely invisible to the public and
inactive in parliament, (3) the lack of a charismatic, capable leader to fill
Vakarchuk’s void.