Politicians considering renewing free travel through Kerch Strait

The next dispatch of Ukrainian navy ships through the
Kerch Strait will include international observers, said on Jan. 3 Yuriy
Biriukov, an advisor to the president of Ukraine. “Let the Russians try to do
anything more,” he said on television. “Yes, our boats will continue to swim.
We can’t simply say, ‘They intimidated us. We won’t go there anymore’,” he
said.

Ensuring the free travel of Ukrainian boats between the
Black and Azov seas is a “key task” for the government, said on Jan. 3 Roman
Semenukha, an MP with the Self-Reliance party. Ukraine’s main Azov ports in
Mariupol and Berdiansk have reduced their operations to four days a week, he
said. “A simple Ukrainian boat or a foreign boat with Ukrainian products
[delayed by Russian officials] surely hikes the price of our products, which
affects our economy,” he said.

Zenon Zawada: In
repeatedly suggesting the inclusion of international observers in their next attempts
to cross the Kerch Strait, Ukrainian defense leaders have now sharply limited
their ability of doing so without these observers. In fact, this is a cloaked
capitulation that ties their hands. If military boats make these attempts
again, and inevitably draw fire or arrest by Russian border agents, they will
be viewed exclusively as a provocation related to the elections, which will
likely backfire politically for President Poroshenko.

Taking control of the Azov Sea has not only enabled
the Russians to enhance their hybrid war on the Ukrainian state, but also
influence the attitudes of voters. An authoritative Dec. 26 poll revealed that
Russian-oriented forces are leading in Mariupol, situated in
Ukrainian-controlled part of the Donetsk region, and are among the most popular
in the Zaporizhia region, where Berdiansk is located. Surely, these voters will
be motivated by renewing relations with Russia when heading to the polls this
year.

It’s unclear whether the Ukrainian government will be
able to recruit international observers to accompany their boats through the
Kerch Strait. The Nov. 25 incident was either a foolish miscalculation, or a
provocation, either of which doesn’t inspire confidence among Western leaders.