Polling shows Ukrainian voter support stabilizing

Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) released
the results of its political poll on June 10. KIIS conducted its telephone
survey over June 1-7. According to a KIIS press release, the political
situation in Ukraine has been “quite dynamic” since December 2020. However,
changes in support levels since April 2021 have all been within the margin of
statistical error. The result is relatively the same ordering of political
support, though some changes can be seen.

Support for the pro-presidential Servant of the People
party had been statistically greater than that of the European Solidarity party
of former president Petro Poroshenko in April. As of the latest poll, however,
the two are within the level of statistical error, at 20.3% and 18.5% of
decided voters.

The Fatherland party of ex-PM Yuliya Tymoshenko and
pro-Russian Opposition Platform for Life party are also close, with 12.0% and
11.9% support from decided voters, respectively. Support for both of these
parties has dropped since April, but within the margin of error. The Strength
and Honor party also breaches the 5% support level needed to gain seats in the
Verkhovna Rada, at 7.2% of voters.

James Hydzik: The
relative stabilization of voter support shows that President Zelensky has not been
able to convince significantly more voters to support him. Despite the core
positive changes since April, namely a slight easing of tension on the border
with Russia, and the increasing roll-out of the government’s COVID-19
vaccination program, nothing has gone smoothly enough for him to take credit or
in such a way as to paint him as a victim of circumstance.

The international situation is only now recovering
from the political mess that was the change of CEOs at Naftogaz just before U.S.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived. The COVID response was only
depoliticized with the removal of Maksym Stepanov as Health Minister, along
with the scandals that surrounded him. Against this background, even headline
news such as the fight to affect the influence of pro-Kremlin judges, media,
and oligarchs has not changed anything significantly. Inter alia, this state
should remain stable as Ukraine enters its summer political hibernation.