Poroshenko appeals for public support for Donbas elections law

A political resolution to the conflict in eastern Ukraine will reach a dead end without elections on the occupied territories of Donbas, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said in an appeal to the public issued on Oct. 11. He called for parliament’s understanding and support for a new bill that is necessary to establish the conditions for holding special elections in the occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (collectively known as Donbas). These special conditions include enabling Donbas refugees to participate.

Organizing the elections and campaigning will be extremely difficult, Poroshenko said, but Western leaders told Russian President Vladimir Putin that they must be held in accordance with Ukrainian legislation. “Holding such a campaign is closely tied to the removal of Russian soldiers and hardware, disarming the fighters and renewing Ukrainian control of its border with Russia,” he said in the appeal. Three days earlier, in an interview with BBC Newsnight, Poroshenko called for Russian soldiers to be removed from the occupied territories of Donbas in order for elections to be held.

On Oct. 10, the website of council of ministers of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic reported that its head signed a decree postponing the elections until April 20.

The Luhansk People’s Republic will also hold its local elections in 2016, said Igor Plotnitsky, the head of the self-declared Luhansk People’s Republic, without specifying a date. “We postponed – not canceled – our elections,” he added, implying that the self-declared republic is not ready to hold the vote based on Ukrainian law.

Zenon Zawada: The president is correct in stating that organizing the elections and campaigning in the Donbas occupied territories will be extremely difficult, and we’ve already expressed our doubts in the success of this endeavor. President’s staff is already in the process of drafting the legislation, according to our sources. With his appeal, Poroshenko is preparing the public for a fierce political battle that he’s already anticipating. We expect the pro-Western camp in Ukrainian parliament will be divided, with the Self-Reliance, Fatherland and Radical parties in opposition to the elections under the terms agreed to in Paris on Oct. 2. The best thing we can hope for is a compromise on the legislation, which doesn’t sound approvable from what was revealed in Paris.

By changing the dates of the elections and not yet agreeing to them being held under Ukrainian law, the terrorists have shown they will be utterly resistant to compromises and will change the rules of the game when it suits them. Even if they agree to hold them under a special election law approved by parliament, we don’t expect them to play by adhere to these rules (which are supposed to be drafted with their input). The current leadership of occupied Donbas simply doesn’t have much respect for democracy, rule of law or adhering to agreements, as demonstrated in the last year-and-a-half.

So we expect acute political turbulence in the upcoming months, potentially stirring up renewed armed fighting in Donbas. If the president somehow manages to get the parliament to approve a special elections law in Donbas, which is a very big question mark, the actual process will be extremely messy. Unfortunately, the whole process of organizing and holding these special elections has the high potential to destabilize Ukraine domestically, which plays directly into the geopolitical goals of the Kremlin.