Poroshenko is officially accused of treason

The Prosecutor’s General Office filed on Dec. 20 a letter
of suspicion against former president Petro Poroshenko for state treason and
the financing of terrorist organizations, the office reported the same day.
Poroshenko is suspected of conspiring with other Ukrainian and top Russian
politicians to unlawfully procure coal from the companies controlled by
terrorists of Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR). This
resulted in the transfer of over UAH 200 mln of funds from a state company to
accounts controlled by DPR and LPR in late 2014 and 2015, which were used for
the benefit of these terrorists organizations.

 

Later on the same day, pravda.com.ua published a full
text of the suspicion letter. According to the letter, Poroshenko conspired
with Viktor Medvedchuk, (a Ukrainian politicianwho has good relations with Russian president Putin),  Serhiy Kuziara (a
person who has good links in DPR/LPR) and Volodymyr Demchyshyn (energy minister since Dec. 2,
2014, who replaced the “uncooperative” minister Yuriy Prodan).

 

·      Ahead
of the heating season of 2014-2015, Ukrainian power plants had insufficient
stockpiles of anthracitic coal (then produced in Ukraine only on the
territories controlled by DPR/LPR).

·      There
were three sources of such coal: territories controlled by DPR/LPR, Russia, and
overseas (e.g. South Africa). The suspects, together with the Russian
establishment, did their best to prevent supplies of coal from other sources
than DPR/LPR (namely, Russia, coordinating with Medvedchuk, blocked coal supplies from its territory,
while Ukrainian law enforcement bodies and
Poroshenko himself did everything to discredit the quality of South African
coal, after which the foreign contractor refused to supply new batches of
coal).

·      To
prevent a collapse of energy supplies in winter, Ukraine was forced to purchase
coal from companies controlled by DPR/LPR. The terrorists of DPR/LPR were going
to use money paid for coal at their own discretion, according to the
investigation.

·      In
Dec. 16, 2014 – Jan. 6, 2016, Ukrainian state company transferred UAH 32.3 mln
to two companies representing  DPR and LPR, including UAH 10.0 mln
transferred in cash – and only after that did coal supplies to Ukraine start.
Overall, by November 2015, the two DPR/LPR companies had received UAH 215.0 mln
for coal supplies, which they converted into cash and distributed to the
benefit of the terrorist organizations.

·      In
this way, Poroshenko and other conspiring parties committed state treason and
facilitated the activity of terrorist organizations, the investigation
concluded.

 

The suspicion letter was signed by acting prosecutor
general Oleksiy Symonenko.

 

Reacting to the letter, the European Solidarity party,
led by Poroshenko, accused President Zelensky of persecuting the opposition
party which is becoming the most popular political force in Ukraine.
Poroshenko, who left Ukraine on Dec. 18, reacted on Dec. 21. He called
suspicion against him as crossing red lines, by the current government. At the
same time, he called Ukrainians to unite in order to save the country and
resist Russian aggression.

 

According to results of two polls made by SOCIS and
Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), announced Dec. 20, the
parties of Poroshenko and Zelensky are nearly level in electoral support.
Namely, KIIS stated that Poroshenko’s party has the support of 16.5% of decided
voters now (vs. 15.0% in June), while Zelensky’s party has 17.6% support (20.6%
in June).

 

Alexander Paraschiy: The timing
for Poroshenko’s persecution looks perfect from the viewpoint of internal
politics: Poroshenko’s electoral support is getting closer to Zelensky’s, but
still lags notably. Were Poroshenko more popular than Zelensky, the accusations
of a political motivation to his prosecution would have been more sound. At the
same time, the timing is bad taking into account the geopolitical issues:
as  risks increased of Russian military invasion, the president should act
to unite the nation, not separate or create a background for political unrest
related to attacks on the second-most popular politician.

 

By attacking Poroshenko, Zelensky has effectively
started the presidential election campaign. If Poroshenko is officially accused
of crimes (or if he does not return to Ukraine soon), Zelensky will fully
neutralize his biggest competitor to date for the 2024 presidential elections.
However, if Poroshenko is able to defend himself, his chances to become the
next president will increase significantly. At this stage, we see the
probability of the second scenario as slightly more probable.