Poroshenko makes warnings, recommendations on Donbas withdrawal

Ukraine stands to lose control of about 30 population
centers in the Donbas region and valuable positions of height in their defense
in the current Steinmeier plan for withdrawal, former President Poroshenko said
in a video statement released on Oct. 9. Moreover, the 2016 military positions
that the Ukrainian military leaders have been referring to in their plans for
withdrawal are “mythical,” Poroshenko added, indicating that there is no
recognized record of these positions. Instead, he called for a withdrawal to
the demarcation line set in Minsk in Sept. 19, 2014. Ukraine’s Armed Forces
have spent recent years capturing positions in the so-called “gray zone”
surrounding the separation line in order to capture strategic heights to
prevent the shooting of nearby population centers, the pravda.com.ua news site.

Instead of the Steinmeier formula for withdrawal,
which Poroshenko referred to as a “Russian trap,” the former president offered
his own seven conditions to withdraw forces, the first being the principles of
“safety first, nothing is not agreed upon until everything is not agreed upon,
and only through safety to elections.” The other steps are: (2) the Steinmeier
formula must be considered as a component of the road map to fulfilling the
Minsk Accords, including the withdrawal of Russian soldiers, hardware and arms;
the disarming of illegal military formations; and the transfer of control of
the Ukrainian-Russian border under Kyiv’s control; (3) the withdrawal occurs
only under a permanent and all-encompassing ceasefire, and Russia should return
2,500 kilometers; (4) the OSCE special monitoring mission gaining full access
to all of occupied Donbas and establishing permanent control of the
Russian-Ukrainian border; (5) the creation of a subgroup on border issues
within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk; (6) the launch
of a UN peacekeeping mission on all the territory of occupied Donbas; (7) the
re-establishment of taxation in Donbas within Ukraine’s legal framework, as
well as the financial and banking systems.

Zenon Zawada: Losing
control of towns and villages isn’t a problem if they become part of a
demilitarized zone along the separation line that is well enforced by
international observers until the Minsk Accords are fully implemented. What
Poroshenko is implying with his remarks is that Russia won’t allow for such an
internationally monitored zone – let alone the fully authorized presence of the
OSCE and UN – and instead will take advantage of the withdrawal to make
military advances.

So a key question is whether (1) the Russians will
take advantage of the withdrawal to make military advances, as Poroshenko is
warning, or whether (2) their strategy will consist of fulfilling the Minsk
Accords in good faith, with the knowledge that the agreement’s very
implementation achieves their ultimate goal of anchoring Ukraine in Russia’s
geopolitical orbit.

We share Poroshenko’s view that Russia has set a trap
for Ukraine that Zelensky is walking directly into. But the trap is not
necessarily the Steinmeier formula, but the very Minsk Accords themselves (that
Poroshenko himself agreed to). Therefore, we are leaning towards believing the
latter strategy will be employed, though we can’t rule out anything with the
Russians.

Poroshenko deserves credit for proposing his own
formula to withdrawing forces, rather than merely criticizing Zelensky and the
Steinmeier formula, which rings hollow with Ukrainians. In light of his unique
insight on the war in Donbas, it’s equally tragic that Poroshenko discredited
himself so deeply with the Ukrainian public, with his alleged corruption, that
most Ukrainians don’t trust him.

Moreover, the Zelensky administration can’t take
Poroshenko’s advice explicitly, lest it lose the public’s trust for
collaborating with the enemy that it has made the former president out to be.
We expect the Zelensky administration will move forward with a clumsy, perhaps
even reckless withdrawal in the early spring, even if it does incur some losses
for Ukraine. In the view of Zelensky and his millions of supporters, a bad
peace is better than a good war. It remains to be seen how they will deal with
those millions of Ukrainians who don’t agree.