Poroshenko narrowing gap with Zelenskiy, latest poll says

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has narrowed the
gap for the lead in the presidential election polls, according to results
published on March 27 by the Razumkov Center. Comedian and actor Volodymyr
Zelenskiy has 24.8% support among decided voters, compared to 22.1% for
Poroshenko and 14.8% of those polled backing Yulia Tymoshenko. About 14.6%
remain undecided. In a second-round runoff, Zelenskiy would earn 36.5% compared
to 22.7% for Poroshenko. The poll was conducted between March 21 and 26 among
2,017 respondents.

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, the intellectual rock star who
considered a presidential run, posted on Instagram on March 27 calling upon his
fellow citizens to: “Vote responsibly! Vote not as a joke!” Though not an endorsement
of any particular candidate, Vakarchuk’s post was widely recognized as urging
Ukrainians not to vote for Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a comedian and actor with no
experience serving in government. “Freedom is not an escapade,” Vakarchuk
wrote. “It requires responsibility, not sarcastic indifference. Changes are not
by chance. They require persistence, not impatience. And finally victory is not
personal ambition. It requires a reliable team, not random people gathered
around hype.”

Zenon Zawada: Though inconsistent
with other recent polls, the March 27 Razumkov poll figures are worth
considering. President Poroshenko has a solid chance to be re-elected,
regardless of Zelenskiy’s wide lead in the polls. He has a latent electorate,
as well as the ability to draw support from undecided voters (with help from
figures like Vakarchuk). These poll results will help Poroshenko on two
particular fronts: dismissing Tymoshenko’s inevitable claims of vote fraud
after the first round, and countering Zelenskiy’s claims of vote fraud
(inevitable, if he loses) after the second round.

Such poll results will also reduce the potential for
mass protests with Poroshenko able to claim that he has had strong support all
along, which had either been latent for the duration of the campaign, or which
swelled with undecided voters when they realized the risk posed by his
opponents winning (particularly Zelenskiy). The current figures for the second
round (with a 13.8pp gap between Zelenskiy and Poroshenko in this poll) will
lose relevancy as the day of the runoff election (Apr. 21) draws nearer and
dramatic events continue to unfold.

On the other hand, Zelenskiy will have his own set of
arguments, including polls showing nearly half of Tymoshenko’s votes are likely
to go to Zelenskiy in the second round (the Kyiv International Institute of
Sociology reported on March 25). That tendency is also confirmed by this March
27 Razumkov poll.

Vakarchuk’s statement lends more credence to MP Serhiy
Leshchenko’s claim that he gained political concessions from Poroshenko in exchange for not running for the presidency.
They are reported to be launching the independent High Anti-Corruption Court
(supposed to have occurred by April, according to Leshchenko) and holding the
October parliamentary elections based exclusively on open-list voting
(eliminating single-mandate districts and party leadership selecting
candidates).