20 October 2014
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko conducted two meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Oct. 17 at the Asian-Europe Meeting (ASEM) in Milan to discuss establishing control and monitoring of the Russian-Ukrainian border. Poroshenko told reporters afterwards that three points of agreements were reached: fulfilling all the points of the Sept. 5 Minsk protocols, supporting elections in the Donbas region in accordance with Ukrainian law and making progress in the talks for natural gas pricing, Voice of America said. The main parameters of a new gas agreement were agreed upon, Poroshenko said, and negotiations are ongoing for finding sources of funding to cover deficits in their contracts.
Putin and Poroshenko agreed to fulfill the Sept. 5 Minsk protocols, said EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, as reported by the UNIAN news agency. They include verifying the ceasefire regime, holding elections in accordance with Ukrainian law and monitoring the border. However, there were no breakthroughs, said German Chancellor Angela Merkel, as reported by the Deutsche Welle news agency.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov assured Czech President Milos Zeman on Oct. 17 that his government doesn’t plan to dispatch its armies into Ukraine, said a spokesman for the Czech president. Zeman is the single European president to have denied Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has called for Ukraine’s federalization.
The leadership of the Donetsk People’s Republic doesn’t recognize the self-governance law signed by the president on Oct. 17, said Aleksandr Zakharchenko, its self-declared prime minister, as reported by the RIA Novosti news agency. “Ukraine can pass any laws, they won’t apply to us,” he said. “We’re an independent state, whose citizens voted for its independence.” The Donetsk People’s Republic plans to “return all the occupied territory” within the bounds of the Donetsk region, he said.
About 15 Russian experts on organizing and conducting sabotage and partisan warfare arrived at the Donetsk People’s Republic, reported on Oct. 17 Dmytro Tymchuk, a military expert and coordinator of the Info Resist news site. In the Luhansk People’s Republic, a unit of deep reconnaissance is being formed by the Russian Armed Forces, he also reported. As of the morning of Oct. 20, more than 3,000 Russian-terrorist forces were concentrated at the town of Debaltseve, Tymchuk reported. The Donetsk People’s Republic has transferred two-thirds of its armored hardware and artillery there. In the last 24 hours, Ukrainian forces were shot at 60 times and both sides suffered casualties, he said. The Russian-terrorist forces used rifles, mortars, tanks, and rapid-fire rocket launchers.
Ukrainian authorities freed on Oct. 17 a regional councilman from captivity of the Russian-terrorist forces, reported the same day Markian Lubkivskiy, an advisor to the head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). About 450 Ukrainian citizens remain captive to the terrorists, he said, while 1,400 have been freed. More than 4,300 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine during the Donbas war, reported Russian rights activist Elena Vasilyeva on her web site. Only 900 of these casualties have been recognized by the Russian Defense Ministry, she said. More than 3,700 casualties on both sides of the conflict were estimated by the United Nations in an Oct. 17 report, along with more than 9,000 injured.
Zenon Zawada: Some EU leaders were trying to positive spin on what was essentially a stalemate in Milan. This general state of affairs – a stalemate in negotiations, and daily exchanges of fire with a few casualties per day – works for Poroshenko, whose main goal at the moment is to ensure free and fair parliamentary elections on Oct. 26. An internationally recognized election will also bring him a solid majority in the parliament to approve his legislative efforts. Although we anticipated that the Russian government could attempt to undermine the elections, so far no subversion attempt has been serious. We might see a change in Russian-Ukrainian relations following the elections.
Lavrov’s reported comments to Zeman carry little value, considering the Russian government has yet to acknowledge the use of its armed forces in Ukraine, which are still arriving, according to reports. Indeed Russia’s tactics are utterly erratic and unpredictable, determined on a day-to-day basis, which should be the basis for any assessment of the geopolitical situation in Ukraine. What’s certain is the Russian leadership won’t give up on its goal of undermining the viability of the Ukrainian state.