Pro-presidential, opposition parties nearly even in new poll
13 June 2012
Ukraine’s pro-presidential and opposition parties’ combined forces are polling almost level according to a new survey released yesterday by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, one of the most respected polling centers in Ukraine. Opposition parties (headed by Arseniy Yatseniuk, who joined with Yulia Tymoshenko’s Fatherland party for the upcoming parliamentary election) had an aggregate 43.6% of support from people who intended to vote, while pro-presidential forces drew 41.0%.
Political party support
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Party May 2012
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Party of Regions (Azarov) 27.7%
Fatherland (Yatseniuk) 26.3%
Udar (Klitschko) 15.5%
Communists (Symonenko) 9.8%
Svoboda (Tyahnybok) 5.1%
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Total opposition 43.6%
Total pro-presidential 41.0%
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Note: Opposition & pro-presidential is an aggregate for all parties that received more than 1.0% of support in the poll. Opposition includes Fatherland (Tymoshenko Bloc + Front of Changes), Svoboda, Ukraine-Forward, Udar and Hromadyanska Pozytsya; Pro-presidential includes the Party of Regions, Communists, People’s Party and Progressive Socialist Party. The survey was conducted May 23-June 1 with 2,042 respondents. Margin of error ±2.3%.
Source: Kyiv International Institute of Sociology
Brad Wells: The near parity at this point between the pro-presidential and opposition parties is a bit surprising as the opposition has been looking stronger in recent months. As we previously noted, the opposition should do well or at the very least be even with pro-presidential parties on the popular vote section of the ballot. The key test for the opposition, rather, will be their support on the constituency level where 225 of the 450 seats in parliament will be determined. This section of the vote is slanted in the Party of Region’s favor, as it draws its support from the most densely populated regions of the country in the east.
