Pro-Russian parties reveal leading candidate for elections

Ukraine’s leading pro-Russian party, the Opposition
Platform For Life, confirmed at its June 6 congress that it will compete for parliament
without its rival, the Opposition Bloc, a Russian-oriented project sponsored by
billionaire Rinat Akhmetov. The Opposition Platform presented its Top Ten
closed list of candidates for parliament, led by former Energy Minister Yuriy
Boyko, Kyiv media mogul Vadim Rabinovich, Putin confidante Viktor Medvedchuk,
Luhansk entrepreneur Natalia Korolevska, Yanukovych Presidential Administration
Head Serhiy Lyovochkin, longtime Medvedchuk associate and lawyer Vasyl
Nimchenko, longtime Medvedchuk associate and MP Nestor Shufrych, Yanukovych
Presidential Administration First Deputy Head Serhiy Larin, Luhansk defender of
Russian-backed fighters Sergei Dunayev, and Medvedchuk business partner Taras
Kozak.

Oleksandr Vilkul, the parliamentary faction co-chair of
the Opposition Bloc party, announced on June 7 that it formed an alliance with
four parties that consist of the Party for Peace and Development led by
billionaire Vadim Novinsky, the Nashi party led by Yevgeny Murayev, the
Renaissance party led by Vitaliy Khomutynnik, and the Trust Actions party led
by Kharkiv Mayor Gennady Kernes and Odesa Mayor Gennadiy Trukhanov. At its June
10 congress, the Opposition Bloc party announced its Top Ten closed party list
for the elections, to be led by pro-Putin MP Murayev, Akhmetov business partner
Novinsky, longtime Akhmetov business executive Vilkul, Kharkiv political
kingpin Kernes, alleged international gangster Trukhanov, Mariupol Mayor Vadym
Boychenko, Zaporizhia Mayor Volodymyr Buriak, Khmelnytskiy Regional Councilmember
Uliana Tkachenko, lawyer Volodymyr Pylypenko and Uzhgorod Mayor Bohdan
Andreyev.

Recall, half of the Ukrainian parliament’s seats will
be determined by voting for closed party lists, in which the party leaders
select the rank of candidates on its ballot. A party needs to surpass the 5%
threshold to qualify. The other half of seats will be determined by
single-mandate districts, in which individual candidates compete, often as
members of parties, for the highest result in a geographic area. A party’s Top
Ten electoral list is important because it reveals what types of policies will
be pursued by a party, and who will have the most influence. The list often
includes a few celebrities to draw wider interest.

Zenon Zawada: The Top Ten
list of the Opposition Platform confirms that it will closely align its
policies with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Boyko and Lyovochkin represent
the business empire of oligarch Dmytro Firtash, who has enjoyed close ties to
Russia’s natural gas sector (and Putin) and profited highly from its transit
through Ukraine. Meanwhile, Medvedchuk is Putin’s trusted confidante on
virtually all issues involving Ukraine. To include someone as radical as
Dunayev, who has consistently defended the actions of the Russian-backed fighters,
is a radical gesture in favor of Putin’s policies.

By rejecting a union with Akhmetov’s party, the
Opposition Platform believes it will qualify for parliament without the
Opposition Bloc, which looks all but certain. That way, the business group aligned
with oligarch Dmytro Firtash will gain influence in parliament without having
to compromise with the interests of the Akhmetov group, as had been the
situation when the Party of Regions was in place. The big question now is
whether the replenished Opposition Bloc will be able to gain a 5% vote result
with its new political alliances. We believe it’s possible now that it has
recruited such powerful mayors, including Ukraine’s second-largest (Kharkiv),
third-largest (Odesa), sixth-largest (Zaporizhia) and tenth-largest cities
(Mariupol). It’s also possible that Kernes and Trukhanov have agreed to be on
the party list just to draw votes, and will decline their mandates should the
party qualify.

These two parties will be primarily competing for the
electorate in Ukraine’s Russian-oriented southeast. The People’s Servant party,
loyal to the president, will also be gaining significant votes in these regions
among the pro-Western electorate. So the Opposition Platform and Opposition
Bloc will be attacking each other in order to get the pro-Russian electorate.
They share many of the same positions: (1) capitulating on the war, (2)
pro-Western rhetoric (but limited actions), (3) anti-IMF, (4) anti-NATO, (5)
further decentralization and (6) Russian language and cultural rights. The
biggest apparent distinction is the Opposition Platform openly supports joining
the Russian Customs Union, while Opposition Bloc is vague on this issue.

Given that these two parties are very similar
ideologically, we believe their presence in parliament would have been far
greater had they united their forces (which the Party of Regions led by
Yanukovych succeeded in doing). Nonetheless, they reached the decision that
they both can qualify without uniting. The Opposition Platform has 11.8%
support among decided voters, or second place, according to the latest poll
that was conducted between May 26 and June 7 among 2,021 respondents by the
Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. The Opposition Bloc has 0.9%,
according to the same poll released on June 10, which was conducted before the
party announced its unification and new candidates.