Pro-Russian separatists attack Ukrainian positions at Mariupol

Pro-Russian separatists engaged in massive armed strikes against Ukrainian positions defending the key port city of Mariupol, reported on Jan. 21 Dmytro Tymchuk, MP and military expert. Their goal was to shield the regrouping of Russian-terrorist units in the direction of Mariupol, he reported. As a result, the units bolstered their number of fighters, as well as military hardware, including 10 tanks on the frontline.

Armed formations of the Russian Armed Forces attacked Ukrainian soldiers at two road posts in the Luhansk region, reported on Jan. 20 Andriy Lysenko, spokesman for the government’s anti-terrorist operation. About 800 Russian soldiers entered Ukrainian territory the prior day as part of two tactical battalions, Lysenko reported.

Pro-Russian separatists gained control of 500 square kilometers of additional territory since the signing of the Minsk ceasefire accords in September, reported on Jan. 20 Yevhen Perebiynis, a spokeman for Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry. “Now they want the airport and the efforts of the Russian Armed Forces are oriented towards expanding this territory further,” he told the 5 Kanal television network. On a diplomatic level, the Russian side is trying to secure “a maximally displaced” territorial boundary in talks planned for Berlin today.

Zenon Zawada: The information offered by Perebiynis confirms our assessment of the Russian strategy in Ukraine as attrition warfare, aimed at making slow but incremental gains at the expense of a deteriorating Ukrainian military and economy. The latest onslaught is certainly aimed at securing new territory at the next meeting of diplomats and heads of state, as Perebiynis described.

Not only have Western sanctions failed to force the Russian government to reconsider its military aims, but it hasn’t been impressed with Ukraine’s military effort. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian government’s hands are tied for as long as it depends on the West economically, which looks to be the case for the next several years.

We expect the Russians to continue to attempt incremental gains amid fruitless diplomatic efforts by the West. Should they succeed, the West will impose a new round of non-military measures aimed at the Russian economy. The timing will likely be related to whether the pro-Russian forces make a symbolic territorial gain in Ukraine, such as the Donetsk airport or some part of the port of Mariupol.