Putin asks to de-escalate eastern Ukraine – Kyiv calls his request farcical

Russian president Vladimir Putin expressed his opinion on May 7 that presidential elections in Ukraine, scheduled for May 25, are “a movement in the right direction”. He also asked “representatives of south-east of Ukraine” to postpone a referendum for the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk regions from Ukraine which is scheduled for May 11. Putin assured that Russian army is no more at Ukrainian border, “troops are in the places where they are doing their regular exercises”, he said. 

Reaction of Ukrainian side on Putin’s “peacemaking” statements was ironical. PM Arseniy Yastenyuk commented that Putin’s statements are “hot air”. “No referendum was planned for May 11 in Ukraine. Terrorists and separatists, supported by Russia, have received an order to postpone something that has not been planned”, Yatsenyuk commented. Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) commented that “any so-called “terrorist referenda” in the east of our country are illegal by definition. Thus, an appeal to «postpone» them is just a mockery and by no means a sign of goodwill”. The Ministry’s statement suggested that Russia “distance itself from terrorist activities in the east of Ukraine, and publicly call upon separatist factions to lay down their arms”. It called Putin’s statements a demonstration of the “first results of consolidated international pressure on the Kremlin in response to the aggression committed against Ukraine”. 

Ukraine’s MFA also stated that the withdrawal of Russian armed forces from Ukrainian borders “should be genuinely confirmed” – and nobody on Ukrainian side has confirmed that. The press office of the Ukrainian Border Guard Service declared to Interfax-Ukrayina that it is still observing movements of Russian troops close to the border. Military expert Dmitry Tymchuk clarified in his blog that, as of 5pm of May 7, his team had not observed any decrease of Russian troops at the Ukrainian border, compared to May 1. 

Meanwhile, separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk regions did not show their wish to listen to Putin – their “official representatives” told Ukrainian TV reporters yesterday that preparation to referenda is on-going. Moreover, a new hot spot has emerged in the Luhansk region – shots and an attempt to attack a government building was observed in Severodonetsk city last night. 

Alexander Paraschiy: The only encouraging message from Putin’s statement yesterday was that he commented positively on Ukraine’s future presidential elections. Before that, the Russia’s position was that the elections are illegal and their results should not be respected. At least, this changed rhetoric opens a possibility for the Kremlin to recognize the legitimacy of president to be elected on May 25.       

As far as there are no actions from the Russian side, Putin’s statements of May 7 indeed cannot be interpreted as if he is going to de-escalate the situation in Ukraine. A “referendum” is not going to be run in “southeastern Ukraine” as Putin dreams – it is being “organized” in just the two most eastern regions, where terrorists are active. And it is clear that the separatists will not be able to prepare for it by May 11. Therefore the probability of its postponement is clearly high, for technical reasons. 

We believe the coming 3-day weekend will be tough in Ukraine, with a possible emergence of new hot spots in eastern and southern regions of Ukraine. Tomorrow’s Victory Day celebration and Sunday’s “terrorist referenda” are likely to serve as mobilization factors of pro-Russian citizens in eastern Ukraine, and may end in some violent events.