Putin can withdraw or invade further in Ukraine, Bildt says

Russian President Vladimir Putin has two options with his war in Ukraine, said Carl Bildt, Sweden’s former foreign minister and Ukraine expert, in an interview published on Sept. 21 on the eurointegration.com.ua news site. “He can gradually withdraw, which seems politically difficult for him, or his will launch a military invasion of Ukraine,” Bildt said, “That’s even more complicated and will cost unbelievably expensive.” In the conflict, time is on Ukraine’s side, he said. “If Ukraine can stabilize and conduct reforms during this time, then it will turn out to be the victor in this race,” Bildt said.

The EU’s current approach to the Russian invasion of Ukraine – sanctions against Moscow combined with support for Kyiv – will extend for as long as it’s needed to resolve the conflict, Bildt said in the same interview. The sanctions against the Russian government are slated to be renewed in December. Moreover, he doesn’t expect the EU position to change by then, he said.

Rather than returning to the Geneva format, the U.S. could join the Normandy format of negotiations to resolve the Donbas war, Bildt said in the same interview. He described this as “Normandy Plus,” yet Germany would still lead the talks, which he said has “worked out very well. Certainly better than the EU could have done in that historic period.”

Zenon Zawada: Bildt’s comments offer insight into the endgame that the West has set up for Putin in Ukraine. The economic sanctions have essentially set a time bomb for Putin to find a way to withdraw and save face. If he fails to withdraw in the next two years, he faces severe political and economic destabilization domestically. The same is true if he chooses to invade further. The West has demonstrated remarkable tact in dealing with Putin, who could destroy himself if he doesn’t take advantage of the exit provided to him.

We also agree with Bildt that Ukraine’s key to success is to conduct dramatic reforms to adopt Western institutions while the sanctions pressure the Putin government. As with Putin’s failure to take advantage of the exit offered to him, the Ukrainian government is failing to make the most of this incredible opportunity, bolstered by Western funds and institutional support for reforms, to ensure the nation’s independence and stability.  Instead, Russia and Ukraine are engaged in a senseless conflict that will leave both devastated when it ends.