10 January 2017
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will nominate former U.S. Senator and anti-Putin hawk Daniel Coats as his director of national intelligence, according to media reports, citing anonymous sources in his transition team. In the U.S. Senate, Coats was among the most vocal critics of the Obama administration for its excessively weak position with Putin and inadequate sanctions for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and illegal annexation of Crimea. In 2014, he was banned with several other U.S. congressmen from visiting Russia in response to sanctions imposed by the U.S.
Trump said on Twitter on Jan. 7 that Russia “will respect us far more than they do now” when he becomes U.S. president. He indicated he doesn’t see this being incompatible with having positive relations. “Having a good relationship with Russia is a good thing, not a bad thing,” he tweeted.
Zenon Zawada: We continue to see a balance in Trump’s picks for key foreign policy and security posts between Putin hawks (Mattis, Coats) and Putin doves (Tillerson, Flynn). This indicates that Trump is going to respond to Putin with same approach that Putin has to foreign policy, with flexibility and unpredictable steps. This also indicates that Trump is responsive to his critics, who were concerned his appointments had too many Putin doves.
The first two years will be enough time to determine whether Trump succeeds in his rapprochement attempt with Putin’s Russia, or whether it fails. In which case, we expect Trump to ask the Putin doves to clear the path for the Putin hawks to take charge.