Putin is ready to reconsider Minsk Accords, Zelensky believes

Russian President Putin is ready to reconsider the
Minsk Accords, Ukrainian President Zelensky said in an interview published on Feb.
11, contradicting the recent statements of numerous high-ranking Russian
officials. Putin also demonstrated a mutual understanding that the armed
conflict in Donbas needs to be concluded, Zelensky said of their Dec. 9 summit
in Paris in the interview with the Interfax-Ukraine news agency. At the same
time, “I don’t know if Russia is sure about this, but I am sure that this is a
victory for Russia – an end to the war. This is a victory for them. Not against
Ukraine, but against themselves. I am sure about this,” he said. Putin also
understands a that military escalation, or even occupation of all of Ukraine,
is a dangerous step for Russia, he said.

Discussions on the sequence of fulfilling the Minsk
Accords in their current form very strongly agitate Ukrainian society, very
strongly don’t appeal to the Russian leadership, and are beyond the approach of
France and Germany, who want to abide strictly by the Minsk Accords, Zelensky
said in the same interview. “I refer to this as ‘the flexibility of Minsk.’
Everyone should understand. It seems that German and France have understood
this. It seems, and I felt the attitude, that Russia is ready to think about
this. This is at least a thread – the possibility to discuss this. ‘Listen, how
it’s written there isn’t working.’ It seems we made some progress at the last
meeting,” he said.

Dmitry Kozak, the deputy Russian presidential
administration head promoted in late January to oversee Donbas,
is more interested in dialogue to resolve the armed conflict than Vladislav
Surkov, whom he replaced, said on Feb. 10 Andriy Yermak, the newly appointed
head of the President’s Office of Ukraine. “I met with him. It seems he is more
interested in dialogue on those issues on which I communicated with him. I can
say that we had constructive communication, without which, perhaps, what
happened would not have happened,” Yermak told a political talk show, referring
to the two exchanges of war prisoners.  He added, “To predict and offer an
estimate whether there’s a desire from the other side – probably. If there was
no desire, a meeting of leaders in Paris would not have occurred, and a
dialogue in Minsk would not be occurring. Complicated. Often hitting a dead
end.”

Zenon Zawada: We agree
with Yermak that Kozak seems like a more flexible negotiator than Surkov, as
demonstrated by their prisoner exchanges. On the whole however, these
statements are intended to encourage the Russians to continue working on a
peace deal, rather than reflect the reality, which is that Russia has the
upperhand in demanding concessions from Ukraine and is taking advantage of
that.

Zelensky and Yermak are in a tense position now,
needing to produce some offers to Russia in the coming weeks to bring their
counterparts back to the negotiating table in April. We believe it’s more
likely than not that Yermak will find a way to produce a Normandy Format summit
in April, given that he has expressed his willingness in offering concessions. Moreover, we are confident that Yermak
understands that Zelensky needs to reach some peace agreement in order to
maintain his political viability.