29 September 2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a letter to European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso requesting that the delay of the launch of the Ukraine-EU Free Trade Area be used to introduce large scale changes to the Association Agreement, the Financial Times reported on Sept. 26. “As earlier, we believe that only systemic corrections to the Association Agreement – that take into account the full specter of risks for Russian-Ukrainian economic ties and the entire Russian economy that emerge as a result of implementing the document – will enable us to preserve the existing trade relations with the Russian Federation and Ukraine,” Putin’s letter said. The Russian government will perceive any changes to Ukrainian law to conform with EU regulations as a violation of agreements that prompt Russian retaliatory measures.
The Association Agreement and related agreements don’t include provisions that forbid the Ukrainian government from adjusting its domestic standards during the time in which the trade portion of the agreement is postponed, said EU Trade Commissioner Karel de Gucht, as reported by the Financial Times. Certainly, the Russians see this not as a period of elucidation, but as a possibility to introduce a third side and desolate the agreement that way, he said.
Putin’s letter requests that Ukraine and the EU reject the Association Agreement, said on Sept. 26 Pia Ahrenkilde Hansen, Barroso’s press secretary, who confirmed his reception of the letter. The EU won’t agree to Russia’s demand to amend the agreement, which it has no right to do, she said, as reported by the Ukrayinska Pravda news site. The EU’s position on any Russian response to Ukraine beginning to adapt its regulations will be communicated when the EU completes its internal procedure to prepare for the temporary application of the agreement, she said. “We will conduct negotiations with Russia after member-states confirm the postponement,” she said.
Zenon Zawada: It’s quite obvious these Russian demands will lead to trouble in the future, which is why we expect an escalation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict eventually, whether militarily or on the trade front. We don’t consider it far-fetched, for example, should the Russian government decide to occupy other Ukrainian territories that neighbor the Donbas region, claiming that its residents would be economically devastated by the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement that they are alleged to oppose. Meanwhile, Ukrainian producers and manufacturers should be preparing for Russian import barriers already and finding new markets to export to.