Ukraine’s parliament failed to muster enough votes at
its Oct. 16 session to remove political immunity from MP Oleksandr Vilkul in
order to criminally prosecute him. The vote drew 137 MPs in support out of 226
needed. Vilkul, who belongs to the Russian-oriented Opposition Bloc, was
accused of land machinations by Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko, who sought
to open criminal cases against him. At the same session, parliament also failed
to draw enough votes, only 163 MPs in favor, to strip political immunity from
Opposition Bloc MP Dmytro Kolesnikov to face prosecution for allegedly
misappropriating property.
Zenon Zawada: At minimum,
the Poroshenko administration was placing pressure on the Opposition Bloc, and
Vilkul in particular. But understanding that Poroshenko has an alliance with
oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, who is also tightly aligned with Vilkul, this attempt
to prosecute Vilkul may have been intended to boost his poll ratings. That
conspiracy theory is buttressed by the fact that only 46 out of 135 Poroshenko
Bloc MPs voted to stip his immunity, and only 36 out of 80 MPs from the
Poroshenko-aligned People’s Front party did. It’s rather cynical and
underhanded, but entirely possible in Ukrainian politics.
Yet the Russian-oriented political landscape is
still being formed. It’s still unclear how many Russian-oriented presidential
candidates will compete. And at this point, Poroshenko can’t be sure whether it
would benefit him to have Vilkul to be his main opponent from the
Russian-oriented forces, or if it will benefit him to have both Vilkul and Yuriy
Boyko, the Opposition Bloc head, to compete for the presidency, and even
represent distinct parties in the October parliamentary vote. Splitting the
Russian-oriented electorate might weaken Boyko and the Opposition Bloc, but
creating a new force led by Vilkul could also bring more voters to the
Russian-oriented side who otherwise wouldn’t have joined. It’s also possible
the threat of criminal prosecution against Vilkul had reasons other than the
upcoming elections.