Rada to consider Cabinet dismissal on Wednesday

Ukrainian President Zelensky submitted a request to
parliament on Feb. 28 to hold a special session on Mar. 4, Ukrainian media
reported last week. The proposed agenda contains a question on the Cabinet of
Ministers, which local media reported will likely include the dismissal of
Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk.

The two leaders have not been able to find common
ground since Honcharuk’s appointment in late August, though various local media
interpreted the trigger of Zelensky’s intentions differently.

At a Feb. 28 meeting, Zelensky demanded from Honcharuk
his reasoning for Cabinet’s Feb. 26 decision to replace a top manager at Centrenergo(CEEN UK), which affected the interests of tycoon Ihor Kolomoisky, the dt.ua
news site reported on Feb. 28. In response, Honcharuk reportedly complained to
the president that he does not understand whether the government is supposed to
challenge Kolomoisky or not. “If I understand it wrongly, maybe I should
leave,” Honcharuk reportedly said.

Yet according to the nv.ua news site, the trigger for
the dismissal was a meeting between Zelensky, Kolomoisky and Denys Maliuska,
the justice minister and close ally of Honcharuk. At this meeting, Zelensky
reportedly criticized Maliuska’s policies.

Another news site, pravda.com.ua, reported on Feb. 29
that Zelensky criticized Honcharuk for weak macroeconomic numbers, slow medical
reform and high household utility bills, and Honcharuk agreed with his
Cabinet’s underperformance.

Most local media have reported that Honcharuk will
almost certainly be removed on Wednesday, with the President’s Office yet to
decide upon his replacement. The problem with nominating businessman Serhiy Tihipko, whose candidacy was actively discussed last
week, is that he falls under lustration, having served in
the cabinet of former President Yanukovych. This morning, the Constitutional
Court announced it will review a complaint against the lustration law tomorrow,
which could provide an opportunity for Tihipko’s nomination, pravda.com.ua
reported. A possible candidate as acting prime minister is Denys Shmyhal, who
built his career as an energy and utilities official and was appointed deputy prime minister last month.

Alexander Paraschiy: The
dismissal of Honcharuk’s Cabinet on Wednesday looks very likely, and not much
surprising given Zelensky’s dissatisfaction with Honcharuk’s performance is
apparent. However, the trigger for a possible dismissal – pressure from
Kolomoisky, as alleged by nv.ua and dt.ua – look very unpleasant for Ukraine’s
investment case. At least, this raises the risk that a new Cabinet will be more
in Kolomoisky’s favor. If so, this could bring Ukraine further away from an IMF
deal. All we see right now is that Zelensky has not yet decided on how the new
Cabinet will look like, but some strategy will have emerged by Wednesday.