Rada to hold special session today, IMF-required bills not on agenda

The faction heads of Ukraine’s parliament, the
Verkhovna Rada, have agreed to hold its much-anticipated special session this
afternoon to consider a series of critical legislative items, Parliamentary
Speaker Dmytro Razumkov told reporters on Mar. 29. MPs will meet in the session
hall and are required to wear protective gear from the coronavirus, he said, as
reported by the pravda.com.ua news site.

The agenda of the Mar. 30 session, posted on Facebook,
consists of  amending the 2020 state budget, measures to contain the
coronavirus and treat those affected, to enable conducting parliamentary
committee hearings online, to replace the finance and health ministers, as well
as to appoint the energy minister, a seat that has been vacant since Mar. 5.

Meanwhile, two key measures required by the IMF
for a new loan program (on the farmland market launch and the so-called
anti-Kolomoisky bill) are not in the agenda. At the same time, the agenda
contains voting for a measure to shorten the terms for filing alternative
drafts to the anti-Kolomoisky bill.

The anti-Kolomoisky bill (#3260),
which prohibits the return of failed banks to their former owners, lacks enough
votes for approval, reported this morning Yuriy Butusov, the chief editor of
the censor.net.ua news site. According to his sources, only 170-180 members of
the pro-Zelensky People’s Servant faction (out of 254 total) are ready to
support the bill, while the Rada’s pro-Western factions could provide 40-50
votes. To approve the bill, at least 226 votes are needed, which means The
People’s Servant faction should provide at least 190 votes for certain
approval.

Meanwhile, the parliamentary finance committee has yet
to review the anti-Kolomoisky bill (#3260) after failing to meet quorum this
morning, said MP Yegor Chernov of The People’s Servant faction. The committee
meeting has been rescheduled for 1 p.m. today.

Alexander Paraschiy: It’s of great
concern that the votes are still lacking to support the IMF-required bills. The
failure to approve them in the coming weeks would mean Ukraine’s de facto
default on its external obligations, as President Zelensky warned parliament’s
leaders this weekend.

We expect the voting for shortened terms for
submitting alternatives to the anti-Kolomoisky bill (scheduled for today) will
be indicative of understanding whether such the final bill have a real chance
of being approved. So far, the probability of a no-default scenario looks no
more than 50%.