Railway product prices slid 3% m/m in March for Ukraine exports

Ukraine’s export prices for railway products, sold
mostly by the largest producer, Interpipe (INTHOL), were USD 1,458/t in March,
which is 3% less m/m and 18% less yoy, according to Concorde Capital’s analysis
of State Statistics data released on May 20.

The March prices are 5% above their 4Q20 average,
Concorde Capital’s calculations show. The 1Q21 average price is 2% above the
4Q20 average.

Dmytro Khoroshun: Prices
might drop about 10% m/m in April based on State customs service data released
earlier in May.

Nevertheless, Interpipe’s railway product prices
have apparently stabilized immediately after Russia’s ban on imports from Ukraine (in place since Feb. 9). It could be that the ban
forces the Russian consumers to create additional demand for non-Ukrainian
volumes that used to go to the related Belarus market, creating opportunities for Interpipe. Therefore,
we do not exclude the possibility of prices rebounding from their April level
later in 2021.