Retail trade in Ukraine increases 6.1% in 2018

Ukraine’s 2018 retail sales increased 6.1% yoy in real
terms, slowing slightly from 6.5% yoy in 2017, Ukraine’s State Statistics
Service reported on Jan. 21. In December, real retail sales picked up 4.9% yoy
and 19.1% m/m in real terms.

Regionally, the highest 2018 retail growth occurred in
the Ukrainian-controlled Luhansk and Donetsk regions, (26.8% yoy and 14.2% yoy
respectively) as well as Poltava (12.3%). It was slowest in the Khmelnytskiy and
Kharkiv (1.1% yoy) regions, as well as Kirovohrad (1.3%).

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Retail
trade growth in 2018 was in line with our forecast.
Amid weak industrial advancement, the relatively high growth rate helped to
keep overall economic growth at decent levels.

We expect real retail to increase 6-7% yoy in 2019. It
will be driven by real disposable income growth (mostly wages). At the same
time, cooling inflation will help trade to grow in real terms.