Russia calls for federalization of Ukraine, simultaneous trade regimes

The Russian government is calling for the federalization of Ukrainian government as its solution to Ukraine’s political crisis, which would allow the southeastern regions to join the Customs Union trade regime. “I think it’s not just an idea, but an obvious necessity,” Russian Presidential Adviser Sergei Glazev told the Kommersant-Ukraina newspaper in an interview published on Feb. 6.

“It’s necessary to give the regions enough rights and ability to independently form their own budgets and even the opportunity for partial domestic political self-determination,” Glazev said. “In global practice, there are examples, though they look strange from the viewpoint of international law, in which differing trade and economic regimes exist in the framework of one country. For example, in the composition of Denmark there’s Greenland, yet Denmark is a part of the EU and Greenland isn’t. So that’s a healthy proposal for Ukraine.”

Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the parliamentary faction chair of the Fatherland party, said on Feb. 6 that he’s willing to lead a Cabinet of Ministers under Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych if it consists of ministers from the opposition. “It’s very risky,” he told the Deutsche Welle news agency. “But the issue is not my political fate, but the country’s fate. I am ready to lose in the poll ratings in order to rescue the country.” The new Cabinet should be formed on the basis of the 2004 Constitution, Yatsenyuk said, which separates powers between the parliament and president. “If the government is formed in parliament we would have the guarantee that it won’t be appointed for three months or three weeks. This government has to have the opportunity to implement real changes.”

The Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (UDAR), the second largest opposition party behind Fatherland, will support Yatsenyuk’s nomination for the prime ministership but will not participate in forming a government under Yanukovych, UDAR MP Valeriy Patskan told the 5 Kanal network in a Feb. 5 interview. “We are ready to vote with our colleagues for reforms, we are ready to help in resolving the economic crisis that is currently in the country,” he said. “But we are not ready to betray those people, the aspirations of those people who are standing now on the maidans throughout Ukraine.”

Zenon Zawada: It’s widely believed in Ukraine that federalization would lead to a disintegration of the Ukrainian state altogether. However, federalization is preferable over a civil war and violent breakup of Ukraine, which is one of the potential outcomes of this political crisis. If anything, federalization would make the disintegration process slow and peaceful. However, we believe there are better mechanisms for resolving the crisis, the first step being the return of the 2004 constitutional amendments creating a parliamentary-presidential republic.

Yatsenyuk is absolutely correct in stating it would be risky for him and his party to form a government under Yanukovych. Ukraine’s previous pro-Western leaders did serious damage to their political careers in attempting alignments with Yanukovych, which is why UDAR wants nothing to do with that. We see such a government (led by Yatsenyuk) as having little prospect in stabilizing the situation since Yanukovych will remain concerned with re-election and will have large incentive to undermine its performance. Moreover, the EuroMaidan protest is unlikely to be satisfied with anything less than the removal of Yanukovych as president.