Russia doesn’t understand Zelensky red lines on Donbas, Prystaiko says

The Russian government doesn’t understand the Zelensky
administration is committed to certain uncompromising positions on the warfare
on Donbas and is trying to pressure it to change its positions, Ukrainian
Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko said in an interview published on the
unian.net news site on Dec. 16. “I don’t think that Russia understands that
there are ‘red lines’ that Ukraine won’t ever cross,” he said. “I think the
Russian side is trying to understand this now. After all, if it had understood,
then the rhetoric of discussions and the results would be a bit different. At
the moment, I am observing that the Russian side remains on those same
positions that I have seen in the last five and a half years. Changes are not
being observed at the current moment. We all hoped that the Russian side would
understand the civilizational pressure that our partners have applied. With
sanctions. However, obviously, Moscow is so far demonstrating that it is not
expecting political changes. That is, it’s not ready for these changes.”

The Kremlin was hoping to see in Ukrainian President
Zelensky “some kind of excessive flexibility in resolving principled issues for
us, but our ‘red lines’ remain and they are clear,” Prystaiko said. “We named
these principle things. That Ukraine remains a unitary state with its
recognized borders that we should achieve. Federalization is not under
consideration. Constitutional amendments (allowable) only to those lengths that
we described. That decentralization offers special rights to all regions,
particularly those regions beyond the bounds (separation line). These red lines
have remained, and it seems to me the Russian side remains somewhat
disappointed with such a firm, principled position from Zelensky and his team.”
Regarding the Minsk Accords, Prystaiko said they are “unrealistic, at least
because they have simple terminological and chronological faults.” But the
Russian side won’t agree to an adaptation, he said. “They read what is
convenient for them. They read it as the absolute Bible. Where they’re not
convenient, they don’t find a response,” he said.

The positions of Ukrainian Presidents Zelensky and
Poroshenko don’t differ in any meaningful way, in the view of Vladislav Surkov,
the lead adviser to Russian President Putin on the war in Donbas. “A stupid
inheritance. At a meeting of Donbas volunteers, Surkov announced that the
positions of the Zelensky team regarding the Minsk Accords don’t’ differ at all
from the positions of the Poroshenko team. And he told me that as well,” said
Aleksey Chesnakov, a key adviser to Surkov, as reported by the
politnavigator.news site. “During the Paris summit, the Ukrainians repeated old
unacceptable ideas of the prior team: transferring control of the border before
the elections, disarming the people’s militia, the impossibility of affirming
special status in the constitution. Kyiv is ready to conduct direct talks with
representatives of Donbas, but not those in Donetsk, but those who relocated to
Kyiv,” Chesnakov said, adding “In essence, nothing has changed.”

Zenon Zawada: Perhaps it
was the best approach to arrive at the Normandy Format summit with a blank
slate, as the Zelensky diplomatic team had done. Nonetheless, in his comments,
Prystaiko is demonstrating the notorious naivety of the Zelensky administration
– on Russia’s geopolitical goal of conquering or dissolving the Ukrainian state
– for which it has been repeatedly criticized.

Chesnakov has said nothing has changed essentially,
but in fact, a significant change has occurred. The Ukrainian public wants an
end to the warfare, and Zelensky needs to deliver on this promise. We are
confident the Kremlin is already preparing an enhanced strategy for pressuring
the Zelensky administration, including extending – and perhaps intensifying –
the war in Donbas and making a natural gas agreement as inconvenient as
possible.

If Zelensky resists capitulation (risking the loss of
his core electorate), the Kremlin will merely intensify its pressure,
eventually promoting the notion of holding early parliamentary elections or
removing Zelensky somehow. But understanding that Ukrainians will never give
Putin-aligned politicians the reins of the presidency or parliament, the
Russians will also resort to promoting economic depression and social chaos to
foment separatist tendencies. So far, that strategy has failed.

Indeed the Russian World concept developed by Putin is
at a historical crossroads because it can’t be built without Ukraine, or at
least a sizable portion of Ukrainian territory. And the Russian empire can’t
coexist with the Ukrainian state as it is currently, having committed itself to
Euro-Atlantic integration (at least in legislation).

In essence, Putin needs to finish what he started
by the time his presidential term ends 2024. What remains to be seen is to what
extent he will take his aggression on Ukraine, whether Ukraine will buckle
under this aggression, and what the West does as this conflict intensifies in
2020.