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Russia has not removed its soldiers from near Ukraine, NATO says

Russia has not removed its soldiers from near Ukraine, NATO says

16 October 2014

The removal of all Russian forces from near the Ukrainian border is “an important part of normalizing in the situation” in the region, said Philip Breedlove, the NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe. Yet at the same time, he said he doesn’t see any significant moves in that direction, as reported by the Associated Press news agency on Oct. 15. Four days earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin was reported to have ordered 17,600 Russian soldiers to return to their bases from the Rostov oblast, near the border with Donetsk, where they were alleged to have been engaged in standard training.

 

A Russian reconnaissance plane violated the Ukrainian border and flew over the territory of the Donetsk region, reported on Oct. 15 Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for the National Security and Defense Council. Additionally, Russian drones were spotted 10 times flying in the direction of the Donetsk port city of Mariupol.

 

The Russian-terrorist forces violated the ceasefire regime in at least 40 incidents in the last 24 hours, reported on the morning of Oct. 16 Dmytro Tymchuk, a military analyst and coordinator of the Info Resist news site. They shot at Ukrainian positions using rapid-fire rocket launchers, mortars and rifles and engaged in at least three battles with Ukrainian forces, including the Donetsk airport.

 

Luhansk separatists surrounded and attacked Ukrainian-controlled roadblocks in the last 24 hours, inflicting numerous deaths and injuries, reported this morning the Special Monitoring Mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. At least one soldier was killed and five were injured in the Luhansk region, reported the Ukrayinska Pravda news site.

 

Zenon Zawada: Regardless of whether Putin has followed through in his decision to remove the troops, other evidence (such as the Russian media shifting its attention away from Ukraine) points to Putin having put any possible plans for an escalated invasion of Ukrainian territory on the back burner. We had been anticipating an escalation, but other factors – such as the recent plunge in global oil prices – may have prompted Putin to change his mind.

 

Nevertheless, we don’t think it would be prudent to rule out an invasion in the mid-term, for which the Ukrainian Armed Forces should be preparing for. It’s clear the Russian government will continue to reach its decisions on a day-by-day basis, assessing how events both globally and regionally unfold. So it’s hard to gauge the likelihood of any military decision on Ukraine.

 

Yet what is certain is that Russian intelligence operatives will be active in continuing to destabilize the political and economic conditions in Ukraine, a strategy that includes supporting the separatist leaders in Donbas, some of which the Russian government can influence. But it’s also apparent that numerous separatist groups – estimated at more than a dozen in all – are beyond anyone’s control.

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