Russia likely to recognize independence of Donetsk, Luhansk, Duma MP says

The Russian
government could decide to recognize the independence declarations of Donetsk
and Luhansk separatists in a way similar to Crimea, Leonid Kalashnikov, the
head of the Russian Duma committee on CIS countries, told the “60
Minutes” Russian television show on Aug. 20. “In all likelihood, we will
have the same as a result of all these activities as in Crimea,” he said,
referring to the warfare in Donetsk and Luhansk. “In all likelihood, people – fed
up with this instability – will simply demand independence, and Russia will
have to recognize it.” The Minsk Accords require that these territories remain
part of Ukraine, but with enhanced autonomy.

Zenon Zawada: The reality is that no one in Russia
knows how the current military occupation of Ukraine will be resolved,
including Russian President Putin himself. Putin is making decisions on Ukraine
on a day-to-day basis, depending on how events unfold. He could decide to agree
to fulfill the Minsk Accords (that won’t happen earlier than 2020), or in the
other extreme, he could decide to pursue a continental war. The fate of
Ukraine, and all of Europe, largely hangs in the balance of one powerful man.

Regarding the separatist states of Donetsk and Luhansk, we are confident
that they are more useful to Putin as part of Ukraine, than becoming
independent (like Abkhazia) or annexed as part of Russia. These occupied
territories are an excellent instrument for Putin to influence events and
decisions in Ukraine, as well as gain diplomatic leverage with Western leaders.
We are confident Donetsk and Luhansk will remain part of Ukraine, for as long
as there is an independent Ukrainian state. And we believe Kalashnikov is
offering false hope to the residents of the occupied territories, who are
hoping for improved living conditions.