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Russia may still dispatch its army into Ukraine, German expert says

Russia may still dispatch its army into Ukraine, German expert says

4 August 2014

The Russian army’s ongoing military maneuvers on the Ukrainian border indicate the Russian government may still deploy its army to get directly involved in the conflict between the Ukrainian army and pro-Russian separatists, Gernot Erler, the German Coordinator for Intersocietal Cooperation with Russia, Central Asia and the Eastern Partnership Countries, told the Passauer Neue Presse newspaper in an interview published on August 3. Russian President Vladimir Putin will hardly allow the separatists to suffer a loss after gaining his backing, he said. U.S. military reconnaissance has confirmed that Russian artillery is already being used to back the terrorists, he said.

 

Russian fighters shelled Ukrainian soldiers near the town of Chervonopartyzansk for six hours on August 3 from within Russian territory using heavy artillery, the Ukrayinska Pravda news site reported, citing a frontline soldier.

 

More than 1,000 demonstrators gathered in Moscow on August 2 to demand the direct involvement of the Russian army in the Donbas war, reported photojournalist Yevgeny Feldman on his Twitter feed. Participants donated money to support the fighters of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic and the Novorossiya Aid Fund, waving the flags of Novorossiya that was invented by Kremlin political technologists.

 

The EU and the U.S. will be forced and should transition from a non-interventionist policy to full-scale military aid to Ukraine, “supplying arms at the start and including NATO military subunits afterwards,” Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov wrote on August 3 on a blog. Europe can either choose to stop the Russian government now or to know for certain that what’s happening in Ukraine now will be with them tomorrow, he wrote.  “The issue at hand is truly very acute, about the risk of the conflict in eastern Ukraine growing into the Third World War,” Avakov wrote. “That’s precisely why diplomats and NATO countries are so careful, scraping out the last chances for common sense from the dried out mind of the Russian dictator.”

 

Zenon Zawada: Certain Russia experts, such as those with the Carnegie Moscow Center, have maintained that the Russian government won’t dispatch its army in Ukraine, partly because the costs would be too great. Yet such sober-minded analysis hasn’t stopped Putin from his escapade so far. We share Erler’s view that dispatching the Russian army onto Ukrainian territory is an option for Putin and his entourage. We also share the view that Putin can’t allow a loss in the Donbas war because it would be quite embarrassing. So either a compromise has to be drawn up for him to back down from federalization and save face, or the war will continue for months to come, with the Russians aiming to exhaust the Ukrainian army and economy.

 

The state-sponsored demonstration in Moscow in support of Novorossiya is further evidence that the Russian government doesn’t intend to stop at the Donetsk and Luhansk regions should its forces take control of these territories. Novorossiya is clearly a long-term goal for Russian forces to conquer the eight regions of southeastern Ukraine. As for Avakov’s prediction of Western involvement, we expect it would only occur on a tacit, informal level. We don’t’ foresee the West getting involved in Ukraine on a formal level, partly because the territory is not considered a priority by the West.

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