Russia not ready to return to G8 in 2020, leaders say

French President Macron, German Chancellor Merkel and
British PM Boris Johnson made statements on Aug. 21 rejecting U.S. President
Trump’s proposal this week to consider the return of Russian President Putin to
the G8 group in 2020, the Reuters news agency reported on Aug. 22. “I think
Russia’s return without fulfilling the conditions would be a sign of the G7’s
weakness,” said Macron, as reported by his press service, adding that it would
be a strategic mistake. At an Aug. 21 joint press conference, Merkel and
Johnson confirmed their view that Russia hasn’t done enough to return to the
G8. Not enough success has been achieved in fulfilling the Minsk Accords,
Merkel said, while Johnson also cited Russia’s alleged use of chemical weapons
on British soil and “the ongoing instability, the civil war, the war in
Ukraine,” as reported by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky identified the
conditions under which Ukraine would accept Russia’s return to the G8 group of
industrialized nations in an Aug. 22 Facebook post. “The return of occupied
Crimea, a halt in armed fighting in Donbas and the release of more than 100
political prisoners – and Ukrainian sailors being held by the Kremlin – will be
a serious signal to the world that Russia is ready to again take its place in
the agenda of high diplomacy,” the president wrote. The same morning, the
Russian Foreign Ministry released an insulting response, referring to
Zelensky’s statement as senseless and poorly written. The statement called for
signals to resolve the conflict “in reality, not on social media.”

Ukraine has six months left to prevent the loss of
European support for sanctions against Russia, Roman Bezsmertnyi, a former
leading diplomat in the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk, told Ukrainian state
television on Aug. 20. “During this time, we should organize an entire army of
diplomats that will fulfill foreign policy. So far, this vector of President
Zelensky is too weak,” he said. At the prior day’s press conference in France
with Russian President Putin, Macron gave numerous distressing signals,
Bezsmertnyi said. “A phrase was mentioned about Russia’s return to the G8,
which depends upon resolving ‘the Ukrainian crisis.’ Not the war, but the
Ukrainian crisis,” he said. He added, “I listened to Macron’s remarks and I had
the impression that I was listening to a funeral procession for the sanctions.”

Macron was willing to discuss with Trump Russia’s
return to the G8 in 2020 at this weekend’s summit in France, the CNN television network reported
on Aug. 20, citing high-ranking White House sources.

Zenon Zawada: Recent
developments involving the key G7 leaders should be a source of concern for the
Ukrainian leadership. Macron is sending various hints to the public that he is
leaning towards renewing relations with Russia, while Merkel’s remarks yesterday
imply that Russia could return to the G8 if it does more, not mentioning the
fulfillment of the Minsk Accords or the return of Crimea as requirements (as
Zelensky had). Meanwhile, Johnson in his remarks mentioned “the civil war” in
Ukraine, indicating that he has adopted the Russian false narrative, if not
consciously then unconsciously. Another G7 nation, Italy, could soon see the
emergence of a prime minister, Matteo Salvini, who is an outspoken ally of
Putin.

We believe Bezsmertnyi’s forecast of losing
European support for sanctions in six months is realistic. Knowing that the
tide in Europe is in his favor, Putin will merely apply more pressure this
winter on Zelensky to capitulate to his demands, which could involve extending
the warfare in Donbas and halting natural gas supplies, among other measures
and provocations. As a result, the Zelensky administration will end up
depending heavily on the U.S. for support, a position that will eventually
erode his support in the southeastern regions if the planned widescale,
U.S.-backed reforms don’t produce a tangible improvement in living conditions.