Russia ruining EU-Ukraine pact because of its high likelihood, report says

The Russian government began taking measures to undermine the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement when it learned in early June that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is no longer considering the release of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko as a requirement for its signing, reported on August 16 Dzerkalo Tyzhnia, a weekly newspaper published in Kyiv.

Before that information, the Kremlin was confident that Tymoshenko’s imprisonment was the best guarantee that the agreement wouldn’t be signed, the newspaper reported, citing its anonymous source.

An emergency session was held, after which Russian President Vladimir Putin gave his advisor Sergei Glazyev the task of developing a strategy to prevent the signing of the Association Agreement and bringing Ukraine into the Customs Union.

“Striking Ukraine’s biggest producers that export products to Russia, Moscow has the intent to create significant problems for their business, while at the same time forcing the owners to placate their own mass media and insist that Ukraine’s leadership refrain from association with the EU on behalf of the Customs Union,” the newspaper reported, citing an extract from a strategy document it obtained.

Among the first victims of this year’s trade conflict with Russia was the Interpipe (INTPIP) corporation owned by Victor Pinchuk, who is among Ukraine’s top media barons with three major television news networks in his control.

The Russian plan to undermine the agreement also consists of launching a pro-Russian political party to rival the ruling Party of Regions and challenge Viktor Yanukovych in the 2015 presidential election, according to the strategy document. Pro-Russian civic groups will also be launched to pressure the government into joining the Customs Union, according to the plan, while the political and media influence of pro-EU forces will be neutralized or weakened.

Zenon Zawada: The biggest surprise from this weekend’s revelations is Merkel being willing to sign the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement with Tymoshenko remaining in prison. It was not only our view, but the opinion of most political and business experts, that her imprisonment was the greatest obstacle. If that prives to be the case, then we see no obstacles in the way of signing the pact other than Ukrainian oligarchs pressuring the Yanukovych administration not to do so.

Oligarch profits might get hit hard by the unfolding trade conflict. Yet we don’t think that will be enough to convince them to abandon EU integration. After its signing, the Association Agreement will have to be ratified by the parliaments of the 27 EU member-states. We certainly see some potential hurdles there, but nothing insurmountable.