Russia said it’s considering sanctions against top Ukrainian figures

The Russian government is considering prohibiting imports
of Ukrainians goods as part of its latest round of sanctions to be imposed on
its western neighbor, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Oct. 23, according
to the TASS news agency. Among the individuals to be targeted are well-known
Ukrainian citizens who have done damage to Russia, he said. “The matter
involves blocking their assets that enter the territory of the Russian
Federation, that is, prohibiting engaging in any activity with them,” Medvedev
said, adding that it could also include restricting transferring funds out of
sources located on Russian territory.

The new sanctions will target Ukraine’s economy, in
addition to particular citizens, said on Oct. 23 Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for
Russian President Putin, as reported by TASS. The sanctions won’t target
Ukrainian citizens as a whole, he said. “The Ukrainian people were and remain
Russia’s brotherly people, with the exception of unsuccessful representatives
of this people, who are stuck in nationalist and ultranationalist attitudes,”
he said.

Russia will use all its available levers of influence
and pressure on Ukraine to destabilize the situation in the country ahead of
the 2019 presidential and parliamentary elections, Foreign Minister Pavlo
Klimkin said on Oct. 23 during a visit to Warsaw. He added that Russia is fully
trying to destabilizing the situation in the Azov Sea.

Zenon Zawada: We have long shared Klimkin’s position.
We are confident that these sanctions will be aimed at influencing Ukraine’s
oligarchs in order to pressure them to sway the elections in Russia’s favor,
whether through their influence on politicians or the mass media. The Russian
government could target the industries of kingpins such as Rinat Akhmetov and
Victor Pinchuk, offering to remove all sanctions – including any in this round
– once it gains favorable results in the October parliamentary vote. In turn,
they will be expected to support Russian-oriented parties and candidates that
promote Kremlin narratives, including promises for an economic rebound in
Ukraine’s southeastern regions if relations with Russia are renewed.

In a more extreme scenario, the Kremlin could ask for
parties and politicians controlled by these oligarchs to refuse to recognize
the results of the elections (regardless if they were legitimate). City and
regional (oblast) councils refusing to recognize election results, particularly
in the southeastern regions, could set the stage for the disintegration of
Ukrainian statehood. The Kremlin would much prefer for Ukrainians themselves to
implode their statehood, rather than expand its military aggression. Another
scenario is gaining a Russian-oriented parliamentary majority.

In exchange for the political backing of these
oligarchs, the Kremlin could promise to not only renew trade, but to offer them
guarantees of protection of their assets from raids from Russian oligarchs.

We believe the Kremlin gaining the cooperation of
Ukrainian oligarchs is a possibility with even odds (50/50) because they have
demonstrated little loyalty to Ukrainian statehood, other than protection of
their assets. And they are interested in Euro-Atlantic integration largely for
its legal infrastructure to protect their assets. Moreover, numerous
influential oligarchs – such as Vadym Novinsky and Viacheslav Boguslayev – have
personal allegiances to Russian culture and society.