Russia seriously considering withdrawing from PACE

The Russian government is serious considering
withdrawing from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE),
Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko told the assembly head, Liliane
Maury Pasquier, during their Sept. 20 meeting in Moscow, the Tass news agency
reported. The situation in the assembly is critical, she said. Russia stopped
participating in the assembly in 2015 and stopped paying dues in 2017.

Zenon Zawada: Russia has
been making this threat for more than a year, so it’s nothing new. But we
believe this is Putin yet again raising the ante during the current talks to
introduce a UN peacekeeping in Donbas. The logic is the higher the demands that
Russia makes with Western leaders, the more conditions they will concede in the
peacekeeping mission. Putin has also been raising the ante in the talks by
arranging for elections in Donbas in November, in violation of the Minsk
Accords. His envoy in Minsk demanded that these elections be held.

We believe this is a coordinated strategy among Putin’s
inner circle to warn the Europeans that any cooperation will be lost if they
don’t agree to most of Russia’s conditions for the peacekeeping mission. By
mid-October, we’ll know whether there’s a peacekeeping mission in Donbas.

We expect the leaders won’t be able to agree on a UN
peacekeeping mission and elections will be held in Donbas in November, freezing
until 2020 the talks on fulfilling the Minsk Accords, whether among the
Normandy Four or the Trilateral Contact Group. However, it’s possible that Russia
will remain in PACE on its conditions because it has some powerful advocates
there.