Russia to ask Zelensky to negotiate with Donbas leaders

Among the Russian government’s demands at the Normady
Format summit on Dec. 9 will be for Ukrainian President Zelensky to begin
direct talks with the leadership of the Donetsk and Luhansk breakaway regions,
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Nov. 27. “As a member of the Normandy Four,
Russia formed the framework that lied as the foundation for the Minsk Accords.
And these agreements foresee resolving all questions through direct talks
between Kyiv, Donetsk and Luhansk. And this depends upon, above all, those
sides that are directly fighting in east Ukraine,” said Lavrov, as reported by
the Interfax-Ukraine news agency. He also said, “Zelensky will have to explain
in detail how he himself sees his own actions in fulfilling the Minsk Accords.”

The U.S. reaffirms its unwavering support for
Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity ahead of the Dec. 9 Normandy
Format summit, U.S. State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in Nov. 27
statement. “In recent weeks, Ukrainian President Zelensky has taken prudent but
difficult steps towards peace and reform, which include engaging diplomatically
to advance the peace process, furthering disengagement along the line of
contact, strengthening the rule of law, creating a healthier investment climate,
and streamlining Ukraine’s defense sector. The U.S. commends Ukraine for
instituting the reforms necessary for its long-term security and prosperity,”
the statement said.

Zenon Zawada: As we
expected, the Russians are going to make reaching an agreement on Donbas as
painful as possible for Zelensky. Conducting direct talks with the Donbas
leadership would be correctly considered to be capitulation, violating a key
principle of Ukraine’s resistance (that it’s truly Russia conducting the
warfare). Yet the Russians understand that Zelensky has boxed himself into a
corner and has little choice but to accept its demands. He has already lost the
trust of large segments of the Ukrainian electorate, such as the millions who
oppose any deal on Donbas with Russia, and the millions who oppose the land
market.

Only two issues remain that can enable Zelensky’s
political survival: ending the war in Donbas and securing cheap natural gas
prices. In achieving both goals, Zelensky is at the mercy of the Russians. Yet
striking deals with the Russians makes the most sense for Zelensky. Ending the
war and securing cheap gas would secure the full, enthusiastic support of about
20-25% of the electorate of urban, southeast Ukrainians. Renewing ties with
Russia, even at the expense of the IMF, would also thrill his main campaign
sponsor, Ihor Kolomoisky, and eliminate the current tensions with him.

Striking a deal with the Russians, abandoning the IMF
and preferring Russian gas over American LNG (delivered from Poland) has the
potential to alienate the Anglo-American establishment. But with the
Russia-friendly Trump as president, the U.S. might just look the other way to
have stability in the region, even at the expense of Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic
integration. France and Germany will certainly be willing to look the other
way, in our view.