Russian-backed separatists mounting forces toward Mariupol

Russian-backed separatists are mounting soldiers and military hardware in the direction of Mariupol, a key port city in the Donetsk region that is home to two large steel factories, reported on Feb. 23 Dmytro Tymchuk, a military expert and head of the InfoResist news site. In particular, the separatists launched attacks on Ukrainian positions near the village of Shyrokyne, which is 23 km east of Mariupol onthe Azov Sea coastline, with the goal of taking the area under their control, reported 0629.com.ua, the city’s news site. They used tanks, artillery and mortars in their assault on Feb. 22. Separatists also took control of the village of Chornukhyne inthe Luhansk region on Feb. 20, reported the region’s governor, Gennadiy Moskal.

A terrorist attack on Feb. 22 killed two and injured 11 at the start of a march honoring the one-year anniversary of the EuroMaidan in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city that is situated about 300 km northwest of Donetsk. The casualties consisted of Igor Tolmachev, a local EuroMaidan activist, and a police officer. Among the 11 injured were five police officers. “A remote-controlled explosive device was pre-meditatively planted in a snow bank on a road on which patriotically motivated Kharkiv residents were supposed to walk,” reported on his Facebook page MP Anton Gerashchenko. “The explosive went off when the head of the column of demonstrations neared the snow bank.”

In response, the highest alert terrorist alert regime was implemented, as well as an anti-terrorist operation that resulted in the arrest of four suspects. “I am sure that those, who with the help of similar acts are thinking of destabilizing the situation in the city, won’t succeed,” said Kharkiv Mayor Gennadiy Kernes. “Kharkiv was, is and will be an inseparable part of Ukraine.”

Gunfire continued in the region of Debaltseve even during a Feb. 21 visit by an OSCE special monitoring mission, reported the same day Alexander Hug, the mission’s deputy director. He said he heard 100 gunshots during the thirty minutes they visited. The monitors observed a lack of water, food, gas, electricity and medical supplies.

U.S. President Barack Obama will decide on whether to give Ukraine arms in the nearest days, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told a Feb. 21 press conference, as reported by the Reuters news agency. U.S. and European diplomats are also discussing strengthening sanctions against the Russian government for violating the Feb. 12 Minsk cease-fire accords.

French President Francois Hollande acknowledged the Feb. 12 cease-fire accords were violated and could incur sanctions, at a Feb. 20 press conference, as reported by lesechos.fr. At the same time, “we are going to continue to work on the effectiveness of the Minsk accords,” he said. He added he has no proof of Russian tanks on Ukrainian territory. The foreign ministry heads of France, Germany and Russia will meet on Feb. 24 in Paris to discuss the conflict in eastern Ukraine, said French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius on Feb. 20, as reported by lefigaro.fr.

Zenon Zawada: We expect the Russian-backed separatists to wage a battle for control of the port city of Mariupol in the coming weeks. Such an offensive will inevitably lead to the largest number of civilian casualties in the Donbas war, certainly in the hundreds, and Western military leaders have already indicated that they are considering this unfolding of events.

Besides the desire to avoid civilian deaths, Western military leaders understand the critical, strategic importance of Mariupol (pre-war population of 458,500, pre-war steel production of 27% of Ukraine’s total) and we believe they will decide to help Ukraine’s Armed Forces mount a defense. In particular, we expect a positive decision from U.S. President Obama to lend Ukraine lethal defensive weapons.