Russian-backed separatists violate cease-fire 45 times on Feb. 19-20

Russian-backed separatists fired upon Ukrainian positions 15 times the night of Feb. 19-20 in the direction of Donetsk using Grad rapid-fire missile launchers. Meanwhile, rifle and mortar fire was targeted in the direction of Mariupol. In all, the cease-fire regime was violated 45 times throughout the night. “Although leading up to the signing of the pace agreements, the activity of the enemy was significantly greater, the statistics of daily shootings prove yet again that the terrorists don’t wish to fully cease firing and all the more remove their heavy artillery from the conflict line,” the press center of the Anti-Terrorist Operation reported on Feb. 20.

Zenon Zawada: This type of activity is more in line with what we expected following Minsk Two: a decrease in fighting, but attacks continuing nonetheless. If the fighting remains at this level, with minimal military casualties, the EU will view Minsk Two as a success and be utterly satisfied with it. EU leaders are already eager to make Debaltseve look like an aberration and will direct the attention of the mass media to focus on the current, relative calm.

However, it’s our position, and widely acknowledged, that the Russian-backed separatists will use any lulls to reposition their forces for another offensive, whether in a few days or a few months. They will go further because they have not been subject to any penalties from flaunting the Minsk accords, other than casualties and destroyed hardware. The sanctions have yet to intimidate the Russian government.