Russian, German foreign ministers to discuss Ukraine, Syria on Sept. 14

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet with
his German counterpart, Heiko Maas, on Sept. 14 in Berlin to discuss the
political situation in Ukraine and Syria, the Reuters news agency reported on
Sept. 12, citing the German Foreign Ministry’s press secretary. Talks are also
scheduled later this month involving the diplomats of the Normady Four
countries to discuss the details of a possible UN peacekeeping mission in
Donbas. Besides the mandate and schedule of the peacekeeping mission, the
diplomats will address security issues and releasing Ukrainian political
prisoners and hostages, said Ukrainian Foreign Pavlo Klimkin in late August.
The meeting could occur during the UN General Assembly in New York. 

Zenon Zawada: The
possibility of a UN peacekeeping mission in Donbas is as promising now as it
has ever been since the Minsk Two Accords were brokered in February 2015. Yet a
twist in the plot surfaced on Sept. 7 when the Russian-backed separatist republics announced elections for
Nov. 11, in violation of the Minsk Accords. Given that these
elections could not have been set without the Kremlin’s approval (particularly
after Donetsk leader Zakharchenko’s assassination), the Russians were either
raising the ante for their ongoing talks on a peacekeeping mission, or sending
the message that they’re not interested in the conditions being proposed by the
West.

The major gains to be made by Russian President Putin
from the peacekeeping mission now (and fulfilling the Minsk Accords) are: A.
certain sanctions being relaxed or removed, B. Russian oligarchs avoiding
further sanctions, C. gaining representatives in Ukrainian government, D.
adding more pro-Russian MPs to parliament and E. renewed prospects for creating
instability in Ukraine (with the re-introduction of a hostile, pro-Russian
population with deep ties to the Russian security services).

The main losses for Putin from a peacekeeping mission
now are: A. losing the Donbas issue as a negotiating chip in negotiations with
Western leaders, B. losing the Donbas war as an instrument to exhaust the
Ukrainian economy, C. Ukraine’s economic recovery and stabilization once peace is
established and D. losing face before the Russian public (at least temporarily)
for returning Donbas to the “fascists.”