Russian-oriented candidates favored in 2017 French presidential vote

Francois Fillon, a former French prime minister who has called for renewing military cooperation with Russia, won the French primaries held on Nov. 20 to determine the presidential candidate among center-right forces. He will compete against another former prime minister, Alain Juppe who finished in second behind him, in a second round run-off to be held next week. Juppe has held a consistent position critical of Russian President Putin.

Marine Le Pen, the head of the anti-immigrant National Front, finished far ahead of center-right candidates in a poll of presidential candidates released on Nov. 19. The poll modeled Nicolas Sarkozy as Le Pen’s potential competitor, but Sarkozy finished in third in the center-right primaries. Le Pen has a firm political alliance with Putin. The first round of France’s presidential elections will be held on April 23.

Zenon Zawada: If current trends continue until the spring, we can expect either a center-right or far-right French president who will join U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in renewing military cooperation with Russia. We can also expect sanctions imposed against Russia for the illegal annexation of Crimea to begin to be eased in European legislatures in the second half of 2017. We can expect a political solution that doesn’t legally recognize the illegal annexation of Crimea, but at the same time removes punitive measures. We can expect a frozen conflict in Donbas or the Minsk Accords being imposed on Ukraine on conditions favorable to Russia.