Russian-oriented Ukrainian parties could decide to realign, report says

The key players in Ukraine’s Russian-oriented
political forces are currently contemplating a realignment, reported on Sept.
14 the lb.ua news site, which cited high-ranking sources in the parties. The
Opposition Bloc wing controlled by oligarch Dmytro Firtash and parliamentary
faction head Yuriy Boyko are considering a merger with the For Life party,
whose membership includes Viktor Medvedchuk, a confidante to Russian President
Putin.

Ideally for the Kremlin, this alliance could produce a
powerful political force that would form a Russian-oriented parliamentary
majority with Boyko as prime minister and Medvedchuk as parliamentary speaker,
the lb.ua report said. Boyko has been a frequent visitor to the Kremlin in
recent months to discuss political configurations. Boyko is currently head of
the Opposition Bloc party, which has yet to officially decide on its
presidential candidate.

Meanwhile, the larger wing of the Opposition Bloc that
is controlled by oligarch Rinat Akhmetov, prefers the presidential candidacy of
Oleksandr Vilkul, a vice prime minister under former President Yanukovych who
served as an executive in Akhmetov’s Kryviy Rih industries. If the
Firtash-Boyko faction decides to merge with For Life, new parties are likely to
emerge with the Akhmetov-Vilkul faction remaining separate, the lb.ua report
said.

Zenon Zawada: We expect a
Russian-oriented parliamentary opposition to emerge from the October 2019
parliamentary elections, at minimum. But what’s significant about this report
is that the Kremlin is far more ambitious, angling for a Russian-oriented
parliamentary majority and cabinet to emerge from the elections. That would be
bad enough for Ukraine’s stability, but the prospect of Medvedchuk occupying a
post as high as parliamentary speaker would be disastrous, in our view. A large
segment of the Ukrainian public would view this as a Russian victory over
Ukraine and will not accept it.

If the Firtash-Boyko faction does decide to align
itself with the For Life party, that would eliminate any doubt as to the
loyalties of these two influential players, who have so far managed to play
down their otherwise deep Kremlin ties. It would also mark the return of big
money backing pro-Russian forces, the influence of which had been reduced after
the Communists failed to return to parliament in 2014.