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Russian-Ukrainian talks launched after Poroshenko meets Putin

Russian-Ukrainian talks launched after Poroshenko meets Putin

10 June 2014

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 6 for 15 minutes at the 70-year anniversary commemoration of the Allied forces landing in Normandy, France, reported the Ukrayinska Pravda news site, citing the office of French President Francoise Hollande. Putin indicated his readiness to recognize Poroshenko as Ukraine’s legitimate president.

 

After meeting with Poroshenko, Putin told reporters he supports the proposal to end the violence in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. “He has a plan for this, but as to what kind of plan, it’s better to ask him instead of me,” Putin said. “He said something about it in two words, but it’s one thing to speak about it here in France and another thing in your own country.” The Russian president repeated his proposal that the Ukrainian government negotiate with the “supporters of federalization.”

 

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said he hopes for a breakthrough in Russian-Ukrainian relations that would enable Washington to avoid implementing a new round of sanctions against Russia. He called for the Russian government to arrange a cease-fire by asking the fighters to put down their arms and free government buildings.

 

Putin told Hollande on June 5 that he has had possibly some influence on the separatists in eastern Ukraine, reported the French media, citing French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius. Putin said such influence is limited. He also claimed he was against the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts holding their independence referenda.

 

In his inauguration speech, Poroshenko offered his plan to de-escalate the war in Donbas. He called upon all armed fighters to lay down their weapons in exchange for immunity from criminal responsibility for those who did not kill or finance terrorism. Secondly, he offered to create a “controlled corridor for Russian mercenaries who would like to return home”. Thirdly, he offered a dialogue with the peaceful citizens of Ukraine in Donbas. Addressing Donbas residents in his speech, Poroshenko spoke in Russian, promising a plan to decentralize power, a guarantee of free use of the Russian language and respect for the region’s “peculiarities in the issues of historic memory.”

 

Russian Ambassador to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov returned to his post on June 6 after being recalled 3.5 months ago by Russian President Vladimir Putin. “By returning Zurabov, we underlined our preparedness to renew our diplomatic relations in a complete format,” Valentina Matviyenko, the speaker of the upper chamber of the Russian parliament, told Russian television on June 7. “It’s Russia’s good will, it’s a positive message and positive signal. I think there should be an adequate reaction in return. We are counting on common sense from Ukraine’s new government and president since there’s so much that ties Russia and Ukraine.”

 

The Russian government is expecting that Poroshenko will halt its military operation in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and seek a peaceful resolution to the situation, Zurabov told reporters after the June 7 inauguration. That should be accompanied by the pro-Russian fighters also ceasing their armed activity. Yet no official visits are planned between the Russian and Ukrainian governments, he said. “They will more likely have a working nature,” he said. “The very fact that the presidents of the countries have met, albeit briefly, the fact of the ambassador’s return and his presence at the inauguration is a signal that we are ready to renew dialogue,” Zurabov said. The Crimean factor will be present in all the negotiations, he said, “but as a secondary issue.”

 

Trilateral negotiations were held in Kyiv on June 8 involving Poroshenko, Zurabov, and OSCE General Secretary Special Representative Heidi Tagliavini. Afterwards, Poroshenko said he intends to halt the active phase of the government’s anti-terrorist operation in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts during the week, also calling for the pro-Russian forces to disarm by the week’s end. To resolve the crisis, Poroshenko proposed daily meetings to refine what has been done and coordinate further steps. In addition to agreeing to hold such meetings, the three sides agreed to fulfill a list of top priority tasks to de-escalate the armed conflict, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry reported afterwards.

 

Zenon Zawada: The key issue facing the Ukrainian government is whether the Russian government is genuinely interested in a cease-fire or if it will extend its “stall-and-accuse” approach to Ukraine. On the one hand, the Russian government has begun to realize that its Ukrainian military campaign will be costly. They also lack qualified fighters to lead the separatist movements, as those Ukrainian commanders currently in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts have demonstrated themselves to be incompetent in organizing their fighters and maintaining discipline.

 

On the other hand, Putin has shown that Ukraine is critical to his plan of renewing the Russian empire with the Eurasian Economic Union. Putin could use an agreement with Poroshenko as a chance to back down from the conflict and rethink its approach to destabilizing Ukraine militarily. However, we expect Russian attacks on Ukraine on the military, economic and mass media fronts will continue – in varying degrees and varying timeframes – for a long time. It’s just as important for Putin to destabilize Ukraine domestically, if not more so, as getting Ukraine to join the Eurasian Economic Union.

 

We expect a cease-fire to be reached, with the likely result that it will be violated, with each side blaming the other. The bigger issue is whether the level of violence declines overall, despite possible violations. Given that the pro-Russian terrorists have largely gone beyond the control of local oligarchs and the Russian military, it might take a large, decisive military operation somewhere down the road to end the violence.

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