Saakashvili appointed Odesa governor

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko appointed on May 30 Mikheil Saakashvili, the former Georgian president, as head of the Odesa oblast administration, which is the local representative body of the Presidential Administration. The heads of oblast administrations are commonly referred to as “governors,” though their authority is mostly limited to spending funds from the central budget at the local level.

In presenting Saakashvili, Poroshenko referred to him as an “independent, decisive person” who changed Tbilisi. He assigned him with the tasks of deoligarchization, fighting corruption, ensuring transparency in the customs and tax-collecting services and defending the rights of citizens. In his turn, Saaskashvili vowed to help Odesa become the capital of the Black Sea by attracting more tourists and investors. He said he’d work for reforms that would ensure equal rules of business for all. The same day on television, he announced open contests for all the district administration heads he’s responsible for, numbering about two dozen, and make restricting contraband a priority. “The situation with crime is very complicated,” he said. “There’s a lot of weapons here, contraband, criminals coming from Transnistria. I have experience. In my time, we cut off contraband from Russia”.

Zenon Zawada: For months, Saaskashvili has been criticizing the Ukrainian government for failing to conduct enough reforms, quickly enough. In appointing him, Poroshenko killed two birds with one stone. He has forced Saaskashvili to prove himself capable of conducting the reforms that he favors or else remain silent, once and for all. And Poroshenko also removed the previous oblast administration head, Ihor Palytsia, who represents the interests of Igor Kolomoisky, Poroshenko’s biggest political rival at the moment.

Saakashvili’s appointment can only end either as a fabulous success story or a grandiose failure, simply because of his high political profile and the heavy criticisms he’s been making, both of which have raised the stakes for his success. We don’t expect significant reforms, simply because the position of Odesa administration head doesn’t allow for such authority. Moreover, Saakashvili can’t wage a war with corruption when Kyiv’s efforts have been utterly insufficient.

Instead, in the view of the Ukrainian public, Saakashvili’s success will simply be determined by whether he can form relations with the key players in the Odesa region and keep business and government humming at their current pace, with a few targeted improvements that become publicized for the media. Among them could a war on corruption in customs, tailored for the media. This is the same approach being taken in Kyiv at the moment. Yet attempting to change the key business relations, and replace the major business and political players, will only lead to conflicts that Saakashvili won’t have the ability to win, particularly as a newcomer to Ukraine’s third-largest city in which the rules of doing business are well-established.

A lot also depends on how Saakashvili approaches the job himself. With his newly gained Ukrainian citizenship, we can’t rule out that Saakashvili wants a long-term political career in the country, which he has the potential to do. If he wants to carve out a niche for himself in Ukraine, he will have to undertake radical reform efforts, including selecting some key local enemies, that will get him in trouble with local business but draw a loyal following in the process as a reformer. If he wants to remain a part of Poroshenko’s team, he can’t rock the boat too much. He will earn Poroshenko’s graces if he keeps business running as usual, with some modest improvements in governance.