Saakashvili cleared to compete in elections, but not party members

Mikheil Saakashvili was determined by a Kyiv district
court ruling on June 21 to have met Ukraine’s residency requirement to compete
for parliament. The court determined he lived in Ukraine for five consecutive
years uninterruptedly, starting Feb. 23, 2014. Saakashvili gained the favorable
ruling on the fourth complaint submitted to the same court, the court.gov.ua
website reported. Early parliamentary elections will be held on July 21.

Then on June 23, the Central Election Commission ruled
not to register the candidates of Saakashvili’s party, the Movement of New
Forces, to compete for parliament both on electoral lists, and in representing
single-mandate districts. The commission based its ruling on a technicality in
which the party violated its own bylaws when organizing its June 10 congress.
In his Facebook response, Saakashvili accused the commission of acting in
former President Poroshenko’s interests when reaching its ruling, and said he
has “better lawyers who will straighten out the situation” to allow his party
members to compete.

Zenon Zawada: Upon his
return on May 29, 2019, Saakashvili insisted he would remain outside of
politics. Yet we called his bluff immediately
and now he’s competing for parliament. His party, The Movement of New Forces,
has little chance of qualifying, largely because the demand for
anti-establishment forces has been met by President Volodymyr Zelensky and The
People’s Servant party, and rock star Sviatoslav Vakarchuk and the Voice party.
He would have had more success by competing to represent a single-mandate
district in parliament.

Considering Saakashvili’s past behavior (in turning
against former President Poroshenko), we expect him to join a slew of other
Ukrainian politicians (Poroshenko, Vakarchuk) and start attacking Zelensky
should he become too friendly with the Russians, or offer them too many
concessions. However, we don’t expect Saakashvili to reach the same status soon
– as opposition leader – that he achieved in 2017-2018, which was a unique
period in which he was among the few pro-Western politicians willing to lead
protests against Poroshenko.