Saakashvili escapes capture as he’s accused of working with Russia

Mikheil Saakashvili, the leader of the Rada Maidan
protest in front of Ukraine’s parliament, escaped arrest by law enforcement on
Dec. 5 with the help of his supporters, who pulled him out of a car
transporting him. He took shelter at Rada Maidan tent city, where he continued
to speak on its stage and call for the removal of the Poroshenko
administration. This morning, Ukrainian special forces stormed the tent city in
order to arrest Saakashvili, who was declared wanted and under search by law
enforcement the same morning. Several of his supporters were bloodied. However,
Saakashvili reportedly avoided capture again by taking shelter in a nearby
hotel. He then returned to the tent city stage this morning and gave another
speech denying the government’s accusations against him, particularly that he
has ties to the Yanukovych entourage and Russian security service (FSB).

 

At a Dec. 5 press conference, Prosecutor General Yuriy
Lutsenko accused Saakashvili of taking financing for his protest movement from
Serhiy Kurchenko, who is widely recognized as the frontman for the business
clan of former President Viktor Yanukovych. The Yanukovych entourage is
currently scattered around the world, many of which are in Russia. In his
accusations, Lutsenko said Kurchenko and his associates enjoy direct ties to
the FSB, implying that Saakashvili is also acting on the FSB’s orders. Lutsenko
gave Saakashvili 24 hours to surrender to law enforcement in order to appear
for questioning, receive his summons and appear in court. He said the
government has no plans to deport him at the moment.

 

Lutsenko demonstrated for reporters audio recordings
in which a voice alleged to be Saakashvili agrees to have his representatives
meet with those allied with Kurchenko, the other alleged voice in the
recording. “Good, then our person awaits contact with your person and we await
him in the hotel,” said the voice alleged to be Kurchenko in the recording,
which didn’t indicate any illegal activity directly. Lutsenko also promised to
produce a 30-minute film exposing Saakashvili’s ties to Russian-aligned
interests. In response to the audio recordings, Saakashvili told his supporters
from the Rada Maidan stage that they are fabricated. He said he didn’t know who
Kurchenko is until he was accused of taking money from him, estimated by
Lutsenko at half a million dollars.

 

Zenon Zawada: With these
dramatic events, Ukraine has entered into a risky political crisis that will
extend until the next elections, which are scheduled for 2019 or but may occur
sooner, if it’s determined that the Poroshenko administration has lost control
and early elections are needed to restore stability. The Poroshenko
administration already lacks legitimacy among the Ukrainian public as its
approval rating has consistently hovered around 10% for the last two years.

 

If we are to believe Lutsenko’s claims that
Saakashvili is truly working with the Russians and their allies, then we would
have to believe that Saakashvili has abandoned all his ties to Western leaders
and institutions, as well as his access to Western resources. We would have to
believe that he has also abandoned any ideological commitment to Western ideals
of rule of law and liberal democratic institutions. And we would have to
believe that Saakashvili is a strict opportunist looking to make a quick buck
off the latest protest movement in the post-Soviet sphere, regardless of where
the money comes from.

 

Naturally, we don’t believe any of this and we believe
Saakashvili maintains close ties to U.S. authorities. We believe the Prosecutor
General’s Office invented the accusations (as well as the audio recordings,
which are easy to fabricate with modern technology) in order to discredit not
only Saakashvili, but the entire Rada Maidan protest movement. The Poroshenko
administration understands that the way to defeat protest movements is not by physically
destroying them (as the Yanukovych administration had attempted), but by
destroying their credibility among the Ukrainian public.

 

However, the Poroshenko administration itself lacks
credibility with the public and we don’t expect the Russian-collaboration
accusations against Saakashvili will achieve the desired goal of delegitimizing
the Rada Maidan. Instead, we believe it’s a tactic that is already beginning to
backfire against Lutsenko and Poroshenko themselves. The Kurchenko/Russia
narrative and audio recordings are an act of desperation as the Poroshenko
administration tries to exhaust, intimidate and delegitimize the Rada Maidan
protest instead of using violence to disperse it (which would be even less
effective).

 

The U.S. State Department condemning
the administration in strong and unequivocal terms on Dec. 4
could turn out to be a game-changer. We could be witnessing the beginning of
the end of the Poroshenko administration as the Ukrainian public is not going
to re-elect a president who is openly rejected by the Western establishment.
Instead, they will be looking for a candidate who has strong ties with Western
governments and institutions.

 

So among the key questions at this point is whether
the Poroshenko administration is able to maintain power until 2019, or if early
elections are needed. And another question is in what way will the Russian
government take advantage of this chaotic situation in Ukraine’s capital,
particularly with its campaign of military aggression in Donbas.