Seven parties would qualify for parliament, two are Russian-oriented, polls says

Seven parties would qualify for Ukraine’s parliament
if elections were currently held, two of which are Russian-oriented, according
to a poll released in late December. The Fatherland party led by former
political prisoner and populist Yulia Tymoshenko would earn 16.8% of votes, the
Solidarity Poroshenko Bloc has 14.5% support, the Russian-oriented Opposition
Bloc has 9.4%, the Russian-oriented For Life party has 8.9%, the populist Radical
Party has 7.7%, the reform-oriented Civic Position has 6.8%, the
reform-oriented Self Reliance party has 6.5% and the nationalist Freedom party
has 5.6%. Pro-Western parties have 57.9% support compared to 18.3% for the
Russian-oriented parties.

The poll was conducted by the Rating sociological
group between Nov. 22 and 30 of 2,000 respondents.

Zenon Zawada: The large
number of parties potentially qualifying for Ukraine’s parliament is in line
with the current trend throughout Europe, in which ragtag populist parties of
various stripes are drawing support from those tired of establishment
politicians. We see big problems in forming a coalition government with these
parties that are highly polarized against each other.

At the same time, we expect the political landscape
will change dramatically during the course of this year. What’s worth closely
watching is the performance of the two Russian-oriented parties, who have the
potential to form the parliamentary opposition. In which case, Putin will have
regained his Fifth Column in Ukraine.

The most noticeable trend is that the
Russian-oriented parties have a bigger potential to form the parliamentary
opposition than the reform-oriented parties.