Shmyhal floated as latest prime minister possibility

Denys Shmyhal, the recently appointed deputy prime minister
who built his career in Ukraine’s energy sector, is the latest candidate being
discussed to replace Oleksiy Honcharuk as prime minister. This time, the
prediction on the next PM was made by MP Oleksandr Dubinsky, a former
journalist of the television network owned by billionaire Ihor Kolomoisky.
Honcharuk will submit his resignation, and The People’s Servant parliamentary
faction will approve Shymhal as his replacement at the March 4 special session,
Dubinsky reported on his Telegram page this morning. Ihor Umanskiy, who had
served as acting finance minister in 2009-2010, will return to the post,
replacing Oksana Markarova, Dubinsky also predicted.

Shmyhal’s potential candidacy was also mentioned by
Oleksandr Korniyenko, the head of The People’s Servant party. “Simply being new
is not enough. One needs to be new and experienced in something. We are
expecting people who are new in spirit. Possibly with administrative experience
in the sphere of state governing or in business,” he told a March 2 political
talk show. As an example of this, Korniyenko pointed to the February
appointment of Shmyhal as both minister for community and regional development
and deputy prime minister.

Meanwhile, candidates for other key positions in the
Ukrainian government – foreign affairs minister and defense minister – are
still being reviewed ahead of tomorrow’s special session of parliament, news
reports said on Mar. 2. The creation of deputy prime ministerships is also
being considered, news reports said, citing both anonymous and public sources.
For example, a deputy prime minister of defense might be established, said on
Mar. 2 Parliamentary Head David Arakhamia. He also told Interfax-Ukraine that
Serhiy Tihipko, a businessman and establishment figure, will not be nominated
as prime minister, despite widespread reports to the
contrary. Foreign Affairs Minister Vadym Prystaiko could be replaced by Dmytro
Kuleba, the current deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic
integration, said on Mar. 2 the pravda.com.ua news site, citing an anonymous
source in the President’s Office.

Zenon Zawada: The
situation remains open-ended as to what cabinet decisions will be made
tomorrow, though we view Shmyhal as a much more likely selection than Serhiy
Tihipko, who would bring much undesired baggage. What is certain is that
replacing the prime minister, and perhaps even the finance minister, will delay
Ukraine’s ability to secure the IMF loan tranche as the new officials will have
to become familiar with the agreement and commit to fulfilling it requirements.

In our view, no one person as prime minister, or any
other post, will have much of an influence on the overall situation in Ukraine,
which is rather dismal. A new model of governance has to emerge to make
decision-making effective, and President Zelensky doesn’t have the ability nor
desire to develop this model and implement it. In our view, his last hope for
political survival lies with the governing capabilities of the recently
appointed head of President’s Office, Andriy Yermak, and his ability to work
with the new prime minister.