Signs increasing of Russian invasion of Ukraine, U.S. intelligence says

U.S. intelligence released a classified assessment on March 26 stating that it’s more likely than previously thought that Russian forces will invade the eastern regions of Ukraine, CNN reported, citing two anonymous officials in the administration of President Barack Obama who described the assessment. Among the worrying signs in the last four days have been the number of troops on the Russian-Ukrainian border (described as exceeding 30,000) being “significantly more” than what is needed for the exercises that Russia says it has been conducting. “There is no sign the forces are making any move to return to their home bases,” the assessment said. “All of the troops are positioned for potential military action.”

The forces include large numbers of motorized units, such as air defense artillery, that can quickly move, the assessment said, while additional special forces, airborne troops, air transport and other units appear to be at a higher state of mobilization in other locations in Russia. Such signs “have shifted our thinking that the likelihood of a further Russian incursion is more probable than it was previously thought to be,” one official said.

As a result, Republican members of the House Armed Services Committee  sent a classified letter to the White House on March 26 expressing concern about unfolding developments. An unclassified version obtained by CNN said committee members feel “urgency and alarm, based on new information in the committee’s possession.” The committee said there was “deep apprehension that Moscow may invade eastern and southern Ukraine, pressing west to Transdniestria and also seek land grabs in the Baltics.”

Russian forces are accumulating military equipment in a district just 18 kilometers from the Ukrainian border in the Briansk Oblast, reported on March 26 Yevhen Perebiynis, the director of the information policy department at the Foreign Affairs Ministry. On March 25, two trains totaling 60 railcars arrived with military equipment for establishing living quarters and headquarters, communications, medical points and tent encampments.

Zenon Zawada: We believe there’s a 50/50 likelihood of a Russian invasion of the Ukrainian mainland in the next three months, which would be aimed at undermining the legitimacy of the May 25 presidential elections.