1 July 2010
The State Statistics Committee increased its estimate of GDP growth in 1Q10 from 4.8% yoy to 4.9% yoy, it said yesterday. According to new data it disclosed, investments surged 32% yoy in 1Q10 (mostly, thanks to a very low base effect in 2009), accounting for 12.8% of total nominal GDP, while real export volumes grew 7% yoy (50.5% of 1Q10 nominal GDP), outpacing those of imports (+2.4% yoy, 52.3% of GDP). Domestic consumer demand (both private and government) rose by a marginal 0.5% yoy. The Presidential Administration announced last week an unofficial figure indicating GDP rose 6.1% yoy in 5M10. Amid falling steel prices (-27% in May-June) and a higher base effect, we expect real growth to slow in 2H10, although we keep our 2010 forecast unchanged at 4%.