8 September 2015
No arms were fired along the conflict line of the occupied territories of Donbas for the first time in the last several months, reported on Sept. 7 the press center for the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO). The cited ceasefire refers to the period between midnight and 6:00 p.m. on Sept. 7, the center’s press release said, which expressed the hope that it will mark the beginning of a new phase in which “resolving conflicts and problems will shift to the field of negotiations.
The week ended Sept. 5 was the first in which no shootings occurred on the frontlines and when the Minsk accords finally began to work, said on Sept. 5 Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.”No one is dying today from shootings in armed conflict,” the president said, as reported by the pravda.com.ua news site. “This week offers firm hope that the efforts of Ukraine, of my team, to ensure peace will create the opportunity to build a new state.”
Zenon Zawada: The president exaggerated and indeed at least 12 were injured on the Donbas warfront the week ended Sept. 5. But certainly, the fighting died down following parliament’s Aug. 31 approval of constitutional amendments establishing a specific order in the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk.
With the ceasefire, Russian President Putin could be working to repair his global standing ahead of his planned visit to the United Nations on Sept. 15. Yet even more importantly, willingness of the Russian forces to adhere to the ceasefire appears to be a signal from the Russian government to the Ukrainian public to support the establishment of the Donbas specific order, lest the killings start again. This means the public ought to vote in favor of the president’s party in the Oct. 25 elections. Strong results for the Solidarity Poroshenko Bloc will give undecided MPs in the parliament the clear signal to support the amendments. We expect the president’s party to gain strong results in the October vote, with hopes for a ceasefire being one of numerous factors.