Trump, Putin to meet in Helsinki on July 16

U.S. President Trump will meet with Russian President
Putin on July 16 in Helsinki, both the White House and Kremlin confirmed last
week. Meeting alone by themselves, they will discuss their bilateral relations
and “a range of national security issues,” the White House said in a statement.
When asked by reporters on June 30 whether the U.S. can accept Russia’s claim
on the illegally annexed Crimean peninsula, Trump responded, “We’re going to
have to see.” He said he will talk to Putin “about everything,” reported
Bloomberg News. “We’re going to be talking about Ukraine, we’re going to be
talking about Syria, we’ll be talking about elections, and we don’t want
anybody tampering with elections,” Trump said.

Another key topic for discussion will be the future of
Syria and a proposal for Russia to help remove Iran from the battlefield, U.S.
National Security Adviser John Bolton told national television on July 1. “I
don’t think (Bashar el) Assad is the strategic issue. I think Iran is the
strategic issue… There are possibilities for doing a larger negotiation on
helping to get Iranian forces out of Syria and back into Iran, which would be
significant step forward.”

Zenon Zawada: The latest
wave of media-generated fears are sweeping the Western world regarding this
meeting. Yet it’s worth keeping in mind that Trump’s entire foreign policy team
consists of neo-conservatives, especially John Bolton, who are very hawkish on
Putin and Russia, especially John Bolton. So is the entire U.S. foreign policy
establishment that Trump has to rely on.

Trump will not be allowed by his foreign policy team
to go so far as to recognize Crimea as part of Russia. Yet with this meeting,
Trump could reach a deal that will reduce Crimea as a priority in the years to
come, with sanctions starting to be relaxed in four years. Trump could also
offer Putin personal guarantees that a UN peacekeeping mission in Donbas won’t
be used to somehow retake the territory for Ukraine, and that the Ukrainian
side will fulfill the Minsk Accords entirely (though it has been Russia that is
most responsible for violating them).

Since Trump is a businessman by nature, a compromise
on Ukraine could be reached as part of a deal involving Syria. We believe the
U.S. establishment (also known as the Deep State) will tolerate Trump’s
wheeling-and-dealing so long as he doesn’t violate the essential laws and
principles of the post-World War Two order.