Trump refrains from imposing new round of sanctions, citing damage already done

The Trump administration has refrained from imposing a
new round of sanctions against the Russian government that had been part of
legislation signed by the U.S. president in August, the Reuters news agency
reported on Jan. 29, citing comments made that day by Heather Nauert, the U.S.
State Department spokeswoman. The U.S. State Department informed the U.S.
Congress on Jan. 29 that the implementation of the August legislation has
already succeeded in deterring planned or announced Russian military hardware
sales in the amount of several billion dollars, she said, not announcing any
new sanctions.  From that viewpoint, “if the law is working, sanctions on
specific entities or individuals will not need to be imposed because the
legislation is, in fact, serving as a deterrent,” she said.

The U.S. Treasury Department released on Jan. 29 a
list of 210 Russian officials and billionaires believed to have close ties to
Russian President Putin, exposing them to scrutiny and potential future
sanctions, the RFE/RL news agency reported this morning. The Kremlin Report, also
known as the Putin List and Oligarchs List, names 114 senior Russian political
figures and 96 oligarchs who U.S. authorities say have gained wealth or power
through association with Putin. The report itself doesn’t impose sanctions but
could be used for future sanctions and is intended to dissuade banks and
businesses from engaging in enterprise with those listed.

Earlier on Jan. 29, the U.S. State Department said
that, if fresh U.S. sanctions are imposed in connection with the legislation,
“they would primarily be on non-Russian entities that are responsible for
significant transactions with Russia’s defense and intelligence sector.” Nauert
didn’t mention the individuals in the Kremlin Report, stating that the State
Department “does not preview” its sanctions actions.

Zenon Zawada: The idea to
refrain from sanctions, which was driven by Trump’s foreign policy team that
includes Kurt Volker, is related to increasing U.S.-Russia tensions in recent
weeks and Russia’s recent indication that it will consider the UN peacekeeping
option. Besides an escalation in fighting in Donbas this weekend, Russian
banking executive Andrei Kostin warned the Davos forum last week that
escalating sanctions would be considered a “declaration of war” by the Russian
leadership. At the same time, Russian presidential advisor Vladislav Surkov
said U.S. proposals for a UN peacekeeping mission are “entirely realistic” and will be considered.

In light of this, both the Russians and Americans are
considering the UN peacekeeping option to fulfill the Minsk Accords, or as an
alternative. However, we believe that no agreement on a peacekeeping mission
will be reached before the March 2018 Russian presidential elections, and not
likely before Ukraine holds its elections in 2019. We also view reaching
agreement on a UN peacekeeping mission extremely difficult to achieve, given
the lack of trust between the two sides.

While some are interpreting this latest move on
sanctions as Trump revealing his Russophile leanings (even by news agencies
such as Reuters), we are confident that he has largely handed control of his
foreign policy to neoconservatives who are hawks on Russia, including Volker
and National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster. The idea to refrain on sanctions
is a strategic move in the unchanging American plan to hold Russia responsible
for its actions in Ukraine, rather than any indication of a shift towards
appeasing Russia.